Economics explorer
Real GDP (Chained 2017 $)
Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the US economy, serving as the primary gauge of economic health and growth momentum.
GDP growth drives employment, income, and living standards. It's the ultimate scorecard for economic policy effectiveness and business cycle analysis.
Current level: 23685.29 (quarterly data, annualized growth rates). Year-over-year change: +2.0%. Year-to-date: +0.7%.
CPI (All Urban Consumers)
Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services, serving as the primary inflation measure.
CPI directly impacts purchasing power, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and cost-of-living adjustments. It's crucial for monetary policy and economic planning.
Current level: 322.13 (monthly data, year-over-year changes most meaningful). Year-over-year change: +2.7%. Year-to-date: +1.0%.
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labor force actively seeking employment but unable to find work, indicating labor market health.
Low unemployment signals economic strength but can fuel wage inflation. High unemployment indicates economic weakness and unused human resources.
Current level: 4.20 (monthly data, seasonal adjustments applied). Year-over-year change: +0.0%. Year-to-date: +5.0%.
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, directly controlled by the Federal Reserve as their primary monetary policy tool.
This rate influences all other interest rates, affecting borrowing costs, investment decisions, currency values, and overall economic activity.
Current level: 4.33 (daily data, set by FOMC meetings). Year-over-year change: -18.8%. Year-to-date: +0.0%.
10Y Treasury Yield
10-Year Treasury Yield represents the return on 10-year US government bonds, serving as the benchmark for long-term interest rates and economic expectations.
This yield influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and investment flows. It reflects inflation expectations and economic growth prospects.
Current level: 4.33 (daily market data, highly liquid benchmark). Year-over-year change: +14.2%. Year-to-date: -5.3%.
Nonfarm Payrolls
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the number of paid employees in the US economy excluding agricultural workers, indicating employment growth and economic momentum.
Job creation drives consumer spending, which represents 70% of economic activity. It's a key indicator of economic health and labor market tightness.
Current level: 159539.00 (monthly data, closely watched by markets). Year-over-year change: +1.0%. Year-to-date: +0.3%.
Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production Index measures real output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors, reflecting the industrial backbone of the economy.
Industrial activity drives productivity growth, exports, and high-paying jobs. It's sensitive to global trade and business investment cycles.
Current level: 103.99 (monthly data, seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year change: +1.4%. Year-to-date: +1.1%.
Retail Sales (Adv)
Retail Sales measures total receipts of retail stores, indicating consumer spending patterns and economic momentum at the household level.
Consumer spending drives 70% of US economic activity. Retail sales reveal consumer confidence, purchasing power, and economic sustainability.
Current level: 726283.00 (monthly advance estimates, revised data). Year-over-year change: +3.9%. Year-to-date: +2.1%.
Housing Starts
Housing Starts tracks new residential construction beginnings, indicating housing market health and future economic activity through multiplier effects.
Housing drives wealth creation, employment in construction and related industries, and reflects credit availability and demographic trends.
Current level: 1428.00 (monthly data, forward-looking indicator). Year-over-year change: +12.9%. Year-to-date: +5.2%.
Core PCE Price Index
Core PCE Price Index excludes food and energy prices from personal consumption expenditures, providing the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
Core PCE strips out volatile components to reveal underlying inflation trends, directly guiding Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Current level: 125.93 (monthly data, Fed's 2% target metric). Year-over-year change: +2.8%. Year-to-date: +1.2%.
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Personal Consumption Expenditures measures total consumer spending on goods and services, representing the largest component of economic activity.
PCE growth drives economic expansion and employment. It reflects household financial health and confidence in future economic conditions.
Current level: 20685.20 (monthly data, broad consumption measure). Year-over-year change: +4.7%. Year-to-date: +1.5%.
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gauges consumer confidence about current and future economic conditions through monthly surveys.
Consumer confidence predicts spending behavior, which drives economic growth. Sentiment shifts can signal turning points in business cycles.
Current level: 60.70 (monthly survey data, forward-looking). Year-over-year change: -11.0%. Year-to-date: -15.3%.
M2 Money Stock
M2 Money Stock includes currency, checking deposits, savings deposits, and money market securities, measuring broad money supply in the economy.
Money supply growth can fuel inflation or economic expansion. Fed balance sheet changes directly impact M2, affecting credit availability and liquidity.
Current level: 22020.80 (weekly data, monetary policy transmission). Year-over-year change: +4.5%. Year-to-date: +2.4%.
VIX Index
VIX Index measures expected stock market volatility based on S&P 500 options, often called the 'fear gauge' for market sentiment.
VIX spikes during market stress affect investor behavior, credit conditions, and economic confidence. Low VIX suggests complacency risks.
Current level: 16.60 (daily market data, mean-reverting). Year-over-year change: +2.0%. Year-to-date: -7.4%.
10Y minus 2Y Treasury
10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread measures the yield curve slope, serving as a reliable predictor of economic recessions and policy effectiveness.
Yield curve inversions (negative spreads) have preceded every recession since 1970, making this a critical early warning indicator.
Current level: 0.54 (daily data, 6-18 month recession lead time). Year-over-year change: +515.4%. Year-to-date: +68.8%.
10Y minus 3M Treasury
10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury spread complements the 2-10 spread in recession prediction, capturing short-term rate dynamics.
This spread reflects Federal Reserve policy transmission and banking sector health, as banks profit from borrowing short and lending long.
Current level: 0.01 (daily data, banking profitability indicator). Year-over-year change: +100.7%. Year-to-date: -95.2%.
Case-Shiller Home Price
Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks changes in home values across major US metropolitan areas, measuring housing market trends and household wealth.
Housing wealth affects consumer spending through wealth effects, while price changes impact affordability, construction activity, and financial stability.
Current level: 331.11 (monthly data, major metro areas). Year-over-year change: +2.3%. Year-to-date: +2.3%.
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price
West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price serves as the US benchmark for oil prices, affecting energy costs, inflation, and geopolitical risk assessment.
Oil price shocks can trigger recessions or inflation episodes. Energy costs impact transportation, manufacturing, and consumer spending patterns.
Current level: 68.39 (daily commodity pricing, geopolitical sensitivity). Year-over-year change: -16.4%. Year-to-date: -9.7%.
Moody's Baa Corporate Yield
Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Yield represents borrowing costs for medium-grade corporations, indicating credit market conditions and corporate access to capital.
Corporate borrowing costs affect business investment, expansion plans, and economic growth. Rising spreads signal credit stress and economic concerns.
Current level: 6.10 (daily data, credit risk indicator). Year-over-year change: +4.5%. Year-to-date: +0.3%.
Total Vehicle Sales
Total Vehicle Sales combines new car and light truck sales, indicating consumer demand for durable goods and manufacturing sector health.
Auto sales reflect consumer confidence in making large purchases and drive manufacturing employment. The sector is sensitive to credit conditions and economic cycles.
Current level: 16.87 (monthly data, cyclical indicator). Year-over-year change: +3.2%. Year-to-date: +5.2%.
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index tracks the stock performance of 500 largest US companies, reflecting investor sentiment, corporate valuations, and wealth effects on the economy.
Stock market performance affects retirement savings, consumer confidence, corporate financing costs, and overall economic sentiment and investment flows.
Current level: 6370.17 (daily market data, wealth effect driver). Year-over-year change: +13.3%. Year-to-date: +8.5%.
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index measures the dollar's value against major trading partner currencies, affecting competitiveness and trade flows.
Dollar strength impacts export competitiveness, import costs, inflation, and multinational corporate earnings. It reflects relative economic performance and policy.
Current level: 120.76 (daily FX data, trade competitiveness). Year-over-year change: -1.7%. Year-to-date: -6.9%.
🔗 Inter-Market Elasticities Matrix
This elasticity matrix reveals how economic variables influence each other through historical percentage relationships over the past 5 years. Each cell shows the expected percentage change in the row variable when the column variable changes by 1%. Green cells indicate strong positive elasticities (>0.5), red cells show strong negative relationships (<-0.5), and background-colored cells represent neutral or weak connections. Key insights include stock market sensitivity to interest rates, inflation's impact on bond yields, and employment's relationship with consumer spending. Use this matrix to identify transmission channels during market stress, spot leading indicators, and understand how policy changes ripple through the economy. Recent patterns show heightened sensitivity between rates and housing, reflecting Fed policy transmission effectiveness.
📊 Key Economic Indicators Dashboard
This comprehensive dashboard displays 22 critical US economic indicators spanning GDP growth, inflation metrics, employment data, monetary policy rates, and market sentiment measures. The Federal Reserve has set the federal funds rate at 4.33%, currently stable. Unemployment stands at 4.2% (moderate level), having remained stable over the past year. Inflation is running at 2.7% year-over-year (moderate), currently rising. The yield curve (10Y-2Y spread) is positively sloped, indicating normal conditions. Housing starts are rising with strong year-over-year performance (+12.9%). Consumer sentiment registers moderate at 60.7, currently rising. Monitor these indicators to understand economic momentum, policy effectiveness, and potential turning points in the business cycle.