Economics Explorer

Effective Federal Funds Rate –

10Y Treasury Yield –

10Y minus 2Y Treasury –

Unemployment Rate –

VIX Index –

S&P 500 Index –

Overview

Key Economic Indicators Dashboard

This dashboard tracks 17 US economic indicators and 15 market prices, from GDP growth, inflation, employment and monetary policy to Treasury yields, equity indices, volatility, commodities and currencies, each with a projection of its next value. The Federal Reserve has set the federal funds rate at 3.88%, up from three months ago. Unemployment stands at 4.2%, a moderate level. Unemployment has fallen by 0.2 points over the past year. Inflation is running at 3.7% year-over-year, a moderate pace. Consumer prices have kept rising over the past three months. The yield curve (10Y-2Y spread) is flat, suggesting economic uncertainty. Housing starts are down 7.4% year-over-year, a modest decline. Consumer sentiment stands at 48.1, a weak reading. Sentiment has deteriorated over the past three months. Monitor these indicators to understand economic momentum, policy effectiveness, and potential turning points in the business cycle.

Real GDP (Chained 2017 $)

Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the US economy, serving as the primary gauge of economic health and growth momentum.

GDP growth drives employment, income, and living standards. It's the ultimate scorecard for economic policy effectiveness and business cycle analysis.

Current level: 24,611.08
Year-over-year change: +2.1%
Year-to-date: +1.4%

CPI (All Urban Consumers)

Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services, serving as the primary inflation measure.

CPI directly impacts purchasing power, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and cost-of-living adjustments. It's crucial for monetary policy and economic planning.

Current level: 336.30
Year-over-year change: +3.7%
Year-to-date: +3.0%

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate measures the percentage of the labor force actively seeking employment but unable to find work, indicating labor market health.

Low unemployment signals economic strength but can fuel wage inflation. High unemployment indicates economic weakness and unused human resources.

Current level: 4.20
Year-over-year change: -0.20 pts
Year-to-date: -0.10 pts

Effective Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, directly controlled by the Federal Reserve as their primary monetary policy tool.

This rate influences all other interest rates, affecting borrowing costs, investment decisions, currency values, and overall economic activity.

Current level: 3.88
Year-over-year change: +0.01 pts
Year-to-date: +0.24 pts

10Y Treasury Yield

10-Year Treasury Yield represents the return on 10-year US government bonds, serving as the benchmark for long-term interest rates and economic expectations.

This yield influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and investment flows. It reflects inflation expectations and economic growth prospects.

Current level: 4.84
Year-over-year change: +0.68 pts
Year-to-date: +0.65 pts

Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the number of paid employees in the US economy excluding agricultural workers, indicating employment growth and economic momentum.

Job creation drives consumer spending, which represents 70% of economic activity. It's a key indicator of economic health and labor market tightness.

Current level: 159,044.00
Year-over-year change: +0.3%
Year-to-date: +0.3%

Industrial Production Index

Industrial Production Index measures real output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors, reflecting the industrial backbone of the economy.

Industrial activity drives productivity growth, exports, and high-paying jobs. It's sensitive to global trade and business investment cycles.

Current level: 103.95
Year-over-year change: +2.2%
Year-to-date: +2.9%

Retail Sales (Adv)

Retail Sales measures total receipts of retail stores, indicating consumer spending patterns and economic momentum at the household level.

Consumer spending drives 70% of US economic activity. Retail sales reveal consumer confidence, purchasing power, and economic sustainability.

Current level: 745,021.00
Year-over-year change: +6.3%
Year-to-date: +6.1%

Housing Starts

Housing Starts tracks new residential construction beginnings, indicating housing market health and future economic activity through multiplier effects.

Housing drives wealth creation, employment in construction and related industries, and reflects credit availability and demographic trends.

Current level: 1,221.00
Year-over-year change: -7.4%
Year-to-date: -11.8%

Core PCE Price Index

Core PCE Price Index excludes food and energy prices from personal consumption expenditures, providing the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Core PCE strips out volatile components to reveal underlying inflation trends, directly guiding Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Current level: 130.90
Year-over-year change: +3.1%
Year-to-date: +2.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Personal Consumption Expenditures measures total consumer spending on goods and services, representing the largest component of economic activity.

PCE growth drives economic expansion and employment. It reflects household financial health and confidence in future economic conditions.

Current level: 22,452.80
Year-over-year change: +6.3%
Year-to-date: +5.0%

Consumer Sentiment (UMich)

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gauges consumer confidence about current and future economic conditions through monthly surveys.

Consumer confidence predicts spending behavior, which drives economic growth. Sentiment shifts can signal turning points in business cycles.

Current level: 48.10
Year-over-year change: -12.7%
Year-to-date: -14.7%

M2 Money Stock

M2 Money Stock includes currency, checking deposits, savings deposits, and money market securities, measuring broad money supply in the economy.

Money supply growth can fuel inflation or economic expansion. Fed balance sheet changes directly impact M2, affecting credit availability and liquidity.

Current level: 23,413.90
Year-over-year change: +5.7%
Year-to-date: +4.6%

VIX Index

VIX Index measures expected stock market volatility based on S&P 500 options, often called the 'fear gauge' for market sentiment.

VIX spikes during market stress affect investor behavior, credit conditions, and economic confidence. Low VIX suggests complacency risks.

Current level: 24.24
Year-over-year change: +4.74 pts
Year-to-date: +9.73 pts

10Y minus 2Y Treasury

10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread measures the yield curve slope, serving as a reliable predictor of economic recessions and policy effectiveness.

Yield curve inversions (negative spreads) have preceded every recession since 1970, making this a critical early warning indicator.

Current level: 0.38
Year-over-year change: -0.16 pts
Year-to-date: -0.34 pts

10Y minus 3M Treasury

10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury spread complements the 2-10 spread in recession prediction, capturing short-term rate dynamics.

This spread reflects Federal Reserve policy transmission and banking sector health, as banks profit from borrowing short and lending long.

Current level: 0.67
Year-over-year change: +0.46 pts
Year-to-date: +0.13 pts

Case-Shiller Home Price

Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks changes in home values across major US metropolitan areas, measuring housing market trends and household wealth.

Housing wealth affects consumer spending through wealth effects, while price changes impact affordability, construction activity, and financial stability.

Current level: 336.74
Year-over-year change: +2.1%
Year-to-date: +3.1%

WTI Crude Oil Futures

WTI crude oil futures (front month, NYMEX) price the US benchmark grade for delivery next month and are the most traded oil price in the world, setting the tone for energy costs and inflation expectations.

Oil price shocks can trigger recessions or inflation episodes. Energy costs impact transportation, manufacturing, and consumer spending patterns.

Current level: 90.02
Year-over-year change: +51.5%
Year-to-date: +57.0%

Moody's Baa Corporate Yield

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Yield represents borrowing costs for medium-grade corporations, indicating credit market conditions and corporate access to capital.

Corporate borrowing costs affect business investment, expansion plans, and economic growth. Rising spreads signal credit stress and economic concerns.

Current level: 6.42
Year-over-year change: +0.60 pts
Year-to-date: +0.49 pts

Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales combines new car and light truck sales, indicating consumer demand for durable goods and manufacturing sector health.

Auto sales reflect consumer confidence in making large purchases and drive manufacturing employment. The sector is sensitive to credit conditions and economic cycles.

Current level: 16.38
Year-over-year change: -3.4%
Year-to-date: +6.7%

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index tracks the stock performance of 500 largest US companies, reflecting investor sentiment, corporate valuations, and wealth effects on the economy.

Stock market performance affects retirement savings, consumer confidence, corporate financing costs, and overall economic sentiment and investment flows.

Current level: 7,417.37
Year-over-year change: +10.4%
Year-to-date: +8.1%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, in which the euro weighs most, followed by the yen, sterling and the Canadian dollar.

Dollar strength impacts export competitiveness, import costs, inflation, and multinational corporate earnings. It reflects relative economic performance and policy.

Current level: 101.60
Year-over-year change: +1.4%
Year-to-date: +3.2%

Nasdaq Composite Index

The Nasdaq Composite tracks more than 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange and is weighted toward technology and growth companies.

Growth stocks are long-duration assets: the Nasdaq reacts most to changes in interest rates and earnings expectations, making it a gauge of risk appetite for innovation.

Current level: 24,701.96
Year-over-year change: +7.1%
Year-to-date: +6.3%

Russell 2000 Index

The Russell 2000 tracks 2,000 small-capitalization US companies, which earn most of their revenue at home.

Small caps depend on domestic demand and floating-rate credit, so they are an early read on the US business cycle and on how tight financial conditions are.

Current level: 2,753.14
Year-over-year change: +13.8%
Year-to-date: +9.8%

30Y Treasury Yield

The 30-Year Treasury yield is the return on the longest US government bond, anchoring mortgage rates and long-term borrowing costs.

The long end reflects inflation expectations and the term premium investors demand for holding duration; it moves pension liabilities and long-duration equities.

Current level: 0.53
Year-over-year change: -4.16 pts
Year-to-date: -4.32 pts

MOVE Index (Treasury Volatility)

The ICE BofA MOVE Index measures the implied volatility of US Treasury options, the bond-market counterpart of the VIX.

Rate volatility tightens financial conditions: when the MOVE rises, dealers' balance sheets, mortgage spreads and equity valuations come under pressure.

Current level: 92.62
Year-over-year change: +20.18 pts
Year-to-date: +30.26 pts

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Brent crude futures (front month) price the North Sea grade that serves as the benchmark for about two thirds of the world's internationally traded oil.

Brent sets fuel costs outside the US and carries most of the geopolitical risk premium; its spread to WTI reflects transport and supply conditions.

Current level: 97.39
Year-over-year change: +53.7%
Year-to-date: +60.3%

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures

Henry Hub natural gas futures (front month, NYMEX) are the US benchmark price for natural gas delivered at the Louisiana hub.

Gas prices drive electricity and heating costs, industrial margins and LNG exports; they are highly seasonal and weather-sensitive.

Current level: 2.98
Year-over-year change: -31.6%
Year-to-date: -17.7%

Copper Futures

COMEX copper futures (front month) price the industrial metal used in construction, power grids and electronics.

Copper demand tracks global industrial activity, especially in China, which is why it is often read as a barometer of world growth.

Current level: 6.28
Year-over-year change: +26.9%
Year-to-date: +11.3%

Gold Spot Price

The spot price of gold in US dollars per troy ounce, the main non-yielding reserve asset held by investors and central banks.

Gold tends to rise when real interest rates fall, the dollar weakens or geopolitical risk climbs; central-bank buying has become a major driver.

Current level: 4,086.18
Year-over-year change: +2.5%
Year-to-date: -6.0%

EUR/USD Exchange Rate

The EUR/USD exchange rate gives the price of one euro in US dollars, the most traded currency pair in the world.

It reflects the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and moves the translated earnings of US multinationals.

Current level: 1.1152
Year-over-year change: -3.4%
Year-to-date: -5.0%

USD/JPY Exchange Rate

The USD/JPY exchange rate gives the price of one US dollar in Japanese yen.

The pair tracks the gap between US and Japanese rates; yen-funded carry trades make sharp yen rallies a source of global deleveraging.

Current level: 158.25
Year-over-year change: +3.4%
Year-to-date: +1.0%

Analysis

Inter-Market Elasticities Matrix

Economic Indicators Cross-Elasticity Matrix (Logarithmic Scale)

This elasticity matrix reveals how economic variables influence each other through historical percentage relationships over the past 5 years. Each cell shows the expected percentage change in the row variable when the column variable changes by 1%. Green cells indicate strong positive elasticities (>0.5), red cells show strong negative relationships (<-0.5), and background-colored cells represent neutral or weak connections. Key insights include stock market sensitivity to interest rates, inflation's impact on bond yields, and employment's relationship with consumer spending. Use this matrix to identify transmission channels during market stress, spot leading indicators, and understand how policy changes ripple through the economy. Recent patterns show heightened sensitivity between rates and housing, reflecting Fed policy transmission effectiveness.