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Over the last month Value, Low volatility and Market led while High beta, Momentum and Credit lagged. 2 of 7 style premia were positive. Risk appetite reads 23/100 (where the high-beta, credit, small-cap and low-volatility premia sit against their own history). The S&P 500 returned +1.1% and the 10-year yield moved −0.21 pp to 5.04%.
From the headlines — Fed pause amid tech earnings turbulence. The Federal Reserve kept the effective federal funds rate at 3.88%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.99%, underscoring a cautious monetary backdrop. At the same time, major tech firms reported mixed results, with Alphabet and Google shares tumbling on AI‑related revenue misses and Microsoft posting strong cloud growth.
Stance: the premia (risk appetite ≥ 60 risk-on, ≤ 40 risk-off) and the AI reading of the headlines; when they disagree the regime is mixed.
Long/short premia of index ETFs over the last month, with the percentile of each against its own history since 2015.
| Factor | 1M | 3M | 1Y | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarketS&P 500 total return | +1.1%P42.0 | +4.4%P51.0 | +13.9%P40.0 | risingsince 2026-04-14 |
| SizeSmall caps minus large caps | −0.2%P52.0 | −7.7%P9.0 | −0.1%P69.0 | fallingsince 2026-09-09 |
| ValueValue minus growth | +5.6%P95.0 | −1.8%P53.0 | +21.7%P98.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-26 |
| MomentumRecent winners minus the market | −5.2%P3.0 | −2.4%P24.0 | +5.1%P67.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-28 |
| Low volatilityLow-volatility stocks minus the market | +4.1%P97.0 | +1.0%P71.0 | −4.5%P50.0 | risingsince 2026-10-28 |
| QualityHigh-quality stocks minus the market | −1.1%P12.0 | −2.4%P9.0 | −1.7%P51.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-21 |
| High betaHigh-beta stocks minus the market | −5.6%P5.0 | −0.5%P46.0 | +11.9%P80.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-28 |
| RatesChange in the 10-year Treasury yield | −0.21 ppP13.0 | +0.38 ppP81.0 | +1.05 ppP88.0 | risingsince 2026-08-20 |
| CreditHigh yield minus investment grade | −1.3%P15.0 | −0.0%P39.0 | +4.7%P68.0 | fallingsince 2026-10-22 |
Sectors versus the S&P 500, 1 month. Leading: Energy (+10.2%), Utilities (+5.9%), Consumer Staples (+5.0%). Lagging: Communication Services (−8.5%), Technology (−2.9%), Industrials (−1.4%). Dispersion 5.1%.
Recent inflexions. Size turned negative 2026-10-06.
Factor Monitor: every horizon, inflexion points, correlations, the masterclass →
Latest readings; the projection is the Economics Explorer's one-step forecast of each indicator's next print.
| Indicator | Latest | 3-month change | Year over year | Trend | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective Federal Funds Rate2026-10-27 | 3.88% | +0.25 pp | −0.24 pp | rising | ▲ 3.972026-10-31 |
| 10Y Treasury Yield2026-10-27 | 4.99% | +0.34 pp | +0.98 pp | rising | → 4.992026-10-31 |
| 10Y minus 2Y Treasury2026-10-28 | +0.38 pp | +0.03 pp | −0.14 pp | rising | → 0.382026-10-31 |
| CPI (All Urban Consumers)2026-09-01 | 3.72% | +0.25 pp | – | rising | – |
| Core PCE Price Index2026-08-01 | 3.01% | −0.15 pp | – | rising | → 3.002026-09-01 |
| Unemployment Rate2026-09-01 | 4.20% | 0.00 pp | −0.20 pp | stable | → 4.202026-10-01 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls2026-09-01 | +29k | – | – | rising | ▲ 121.182026-10-01 |
| VIX Index2026-10-27 | 17.52 | −1.15 pp | +1.73 pp | falling | → 17.522026-10-31 |
| S&P 500 Index2026-10-28 | 7744 | +4.2% | +12.4% | rising | → 7743.982026-10-31 |
| WTI Crude Oil Spot Price2026-10-27 | $103.37 | +22.7% | +66.4% | rising | → 103.372026-10-31 |
| Trade Weighted US Dollar Index2026-10-23 | 121.32 | +0.3% | +0.3% | rising | → 121.322026-10-31 |
| Moody's Baa Corporate Yield2026-10-26 | 6.45% | +0.19 pp | +0.81 pp | rising | → 6.452026-10-31 |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich)2026-09-01 | 48.10 | −2.8% | −12.7% | falling | → 48.102026-10-01 |
| Housing Starts2026-09-01 | 1221 | −15.1% | −7.4% | falling | ▲ 1261.332026-10-01 |
AI briefing over 120 headlines from 8 sources.
The Federal Reserve left policy unchanged as it awaits more information, with Fed officials emphasizing a pause. Multiple outlets noted the decision and highlighted dissenting votes and upcoming balance‑sheet discussions.
The hold supports the current level of the effective federal funds rate at 3.88% and keeps the 10‑year Treasury yield near 4.99%, influencing credit costs and bond markets.
Alphabet missed Q3 expectations, keeping 2026 capex unchanged and prompting a 10% stock drop, while Google shares fell 10% as search revenue growth slowed. Both companies cited AI‑related cash burn and revenue pressure.
The earnings miss pressures technology stocks and may weigh on the broader Nasdaq, while the broader market watches the 10‑year Treasury yield at 4.99% for rate‑sensitivity.
Microsoft reported a strong quarter, with cloud revenue surging and earnings beating estimates, leading to a near‑3% after‑hours rise and a new price target from analysts. The company also noted lower capital expenditure due to data‑center delays.
Robust cloud earnings support the technology sector and may offset some negative sentiment from peers, while the 10‑year Treasury yield at 4.99% frames investor risk appetite.
Samsung Electronics posted record third‑quarter profit but its shares fell, with multiple reports noting the slide despite a bullish AI outlook and a fourth straight quarter of record earnings.
The decline highlights sector‑specific concerns for memory‑chip makers and could pressure semiconductor equities, while the broader market watches the 10‑year yield at 4.99%.
Wendy’s received a $1.4 billion take‑private proposal from a group led by Nelson Peltz, prompting a sharp share jump and renewed interest in the fast‑casual sector.
The potential deal could reshape the restaurant landscape and affect consumer‑discretionary stocks, while the unemployment rate remains at 4.20% supporting consumer spending outlook.
Every style exposure of the book against the month's premium, its sector tilts against sector leadership, and an estimate of what those exposures contributed.
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