Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Alcoa Corp (AA) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, AA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Alcoa Corp is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $10.94B.
For AA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 27.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 31.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How AA ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Alcoa Corp (AA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Primary Production of Aluminum peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $10.94B | – |
| P/E Ratio | 8.62x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48x | – |
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% | – |
| EPS | $4.81 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $27.93 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $51.54 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.33 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 17.3% | – |
| ROA | 7.6% | – |
| Gross Margin | 18.8% | – |
| Net Margin | 9.4% | – |
| EBT Margin | 8.9% | – |
| Tax Rate | -2.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.53x | – |
| Quick Ratio | 0.92x | – |
| D/E Ratio | 1.28x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 2.29x | – |
| Working Capital | $2.05B | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.05B | – |
| Free Cash Flow | $352M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$699M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | -6.2% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -39.5% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 2.6% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 5.1% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.81x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 8.8x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 4.7x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.0x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 41 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 77 days | – |
| Payables Period | 61 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 57 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $13.60B | – |
| Net Income | $1.28B | – |
| R&D Expense | $21M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $330M | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $11.05B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.40 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 8.3% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 264M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 36.7% | – |
| EPS Growth | 13.2% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $5.88B | 34.9% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.35B | 8.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.54B | 9.1% of assets |
| Inventory | $2.34B | 13.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $9.42B | 55.9% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.97B | 11.7% of assets |
AA quarterly financials and insider trading
Alcoa Corp (AA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Alcoa Corp (Primary Production of Aluminum): 2 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Alcoa Corp (AA) stock news
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Alcoa Corp (AA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Alcoa Corp (AA) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, AA is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Alcoa Corp stock predictions?
For AA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 27.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 31.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Alcoa Corp forecasts updated?
Alcoa Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Alcoa Corp's industry peers?
2 issuers in our coverage, AA included, share the SEC industry code Primary Production of Aluminum. The largest are: Century Aluminum Co (CENX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.