Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
On Oct. 16, 2026, AAP is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Advance Auto Parts Inc is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.68B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 6 Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For AAP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 60.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 28.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, AAP included.
Follow AAP free90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores peers listed below that report each metric.
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.68B | 3/6 |
| P/E Ratio | 96.63x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19x | – |
| EPS | $0.46 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $37.37 | – |
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -0.3% | – |
| Gross Margin | 43.4% | 3/7 |
| Operating Margin | -0.2% | 3/7 |
| EBT Margin | -0.9% | 3/7 |
| Tax Rate | 172.0% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.75x | 1/6 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.85x | 1/5 |
| D/E Ratio | 4.33x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 5.33x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 1.0x | 4/7 |
| Working Capital | $3.20B | 1/6 |
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$58M | 7/7 |
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory Turnover | 1.6x | 3/5 |
| Days Inventory | 233 days | 3/5 |
| Payables Period | 189 days | 3/5 |
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | -$21M | 6/7 |
| SG&A Expense | $4.40B | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $6.02B | 3/7 |
| Metric | AAP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 60M | – |
| Total Current Assets | $7.47B | 62.2% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $3.12B | 26.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $390M | 3.2% of assets |
| Inventory | $3.84B | 32.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $9.76B | 81.2% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.15B | 9.6% of assets |
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Advance Auto Parts Inc (Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores): 7 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up freeWelcome to the Advance Auto Parts Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn it over to Lavesh Hemnani, Vice President of Investor Relations. Good morning, and thank you ...
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP), a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America that serves both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers, will report its third ...
“OSRAM Sylvania has been an exceptional partner to Advance Auto Parts in 2025, in part because of their strong collaboration with our stores, supply chain, inventory, marketing, and merchandising ...
On Oct. 16, 2026, AAP is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
For AAP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 60.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 28.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Advance Auto Parts Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
7 issuers in our coverage, AAP included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores. The largest are: O Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY), Autozone Inc (AZO), Marinemax Inc (HZO), Carparts.Com, Inc. (PRTS), Free Flow Usa, Inc. (FFLO), Applife Digital Solutions Inc (ALDS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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