Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, HLMN is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.43B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 8 Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For HLMN, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 31.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 10.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How HLMN ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.43B | 4/8 |
| P/E Ratio | 32.04x | 1/7 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.17x | 5/7 |
| EPS | $0.23 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $6.30 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $8.24 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.31 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4% | 6/6 |
| ROA | 1.7% | 5/5 |
| ROIC | 5.2% | 4/5 |
| Gross Margin | 48.0% | 1/6 |
| Operating Margin | 6.9% | 5/6 |
| Net Margin | 2.6% | 6/6 |
| EBT Margin | 3.5% | 7/7 |
| Tax Rate | 27.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.71x | 5/7 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.87x | 6/7 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.94x | 3/7 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.94x | 3/6 |
| Working Capital | $423M | 4/7 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $126M | 4/7 |
| Free Cash Flow | $61M | 3/5 |
| Capital Spending | -$65M | 3/5 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -18.9% | 7/7 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -14.7% | 5/5 |
| FCF/Sales | 3.8% | 4/5 |
| CapEx/Sales | 4.0% | 2/5 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.67x | 4/5 |
| Receivables Turnover | 10.4x | 2/6 |
| Inventory Turnover | 1.8x | 6/6 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 7.0x | 4/6 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 35 days | 5/6 |
| Days Inventory | 200 days | 1/6 |
| Payables Period | 58 days | 2/6 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 177 days | 2/5 |
Income Statement
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.60B | 4/6 |
| Operating Income | $111M | 3/6 |
| Net Income | $41M | 4/6 |
| SG&A Expense | $518M | 3/6 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $832M | 3/6 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | HLMN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 195M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 89.5% | 1/5 |
| EPS Growth | 109.1% | 1/5 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $670M | 28.2% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $36M | 1.5% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $155M | 6.5% of assets |
| Inventory | $455M | 19.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.15B | 48.4% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $115M | 4.9% of assets |
HLMN quarterly financials and insider trading
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Hillman Solutions Corp. (Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware): 8 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| HLMN Hillman Solutions Corp. | ▶ | $1.43B |
| SNA Snap-On Inc | ▼ | $19.00B |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | ▼ | $13.97B |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | ▼ | $7.23B |
| CIX Compx International Inc | ▲ | $444M |
| LCUT Lifetime Brands, Inc | ▶ | $187M |
| EML Eastern Co | ▶ | $146M |
| RECT Rectitude Holdings Ltd. | ▶ | $18M |
Where HLMN sits on the market map
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) stock news
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Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, HLMN is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Hillman Solutions Corp. stock predictions?
For HLMN, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 31.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 10.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Hillman Solutions Corp. forecasts updated?
Hillman Solutions Corp. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Hillman Solutions Corp.'s industry peers?
8 issuers in our coverage, HLMN included, share the SEC industry code Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware. The largest are: Snap-On Inc (SNA), Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK), Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD), Compx International Inc (CIX), Lifetime Brands, Inc (LCUT), Eastern Co (EML).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.