LyondellBasell: The 40% YTD Rally Doesn't Fully Account For A Potential Recovery
LyondellBasell has rebounded over 40% YTD and this could be the beginning of a long-awaited recovery. Click for more of this ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Alpha
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5184 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
13.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$20.68B
large-cap · #2 of 23 peers
Summary
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, LYB is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $20.68B. It ranks number 2 by market capitalization among the 23 Industrial Organic Chemicals issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For LYB, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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LYB price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How LYB ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Industrial Organic Chemicals peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $20.68B | 2/23 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.94x | 5/13 |
| Dividend Yield | 6.45% | 1/5 |
| EPS | $-0.97 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $33.03 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $96.56 | – |
| FCF/Share | $4.88 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 3.5% | 8/17 |
| Gross Margin | 12.8% | 12/18 |
| Operating Margin | 3.1% | 7/18 |
| EBT Margin | -0.2% | 9/19 |
| Tax Rate | -379.2% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.64x | 15/21 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.07x | 12/15 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.23x | 4/15 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.23x | 4/16 |
| Working Capital | $4.56B | 2/20 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.97B | 2/20 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.58B | 2/15 |
| Capital Spending | -$1.40B | 15/15 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 26.1% | 4/9 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 240.8% | 2/6 |
| FCF/Sales | 5.1% | 7/15 |
| CapEx/Sales | 4.5% | 9/15 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.90x | 6/17 |
| Inventory Turnover | 6.7x | 7/14 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.0x | 9/16 |
| Days Inventory | 55 days | 8/14 |
Income Statement
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $31.19B | 1/16 |
| Operating Income | $963M | 2/18 |
| R&D Expense | $137M | 2/10 |
| SG&A Expense | $1.57B | 2/13 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $27.21B | 1/17 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | LYB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $4.13 | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 323M | – |
| EPS Growth | -521.7% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $11.66B | 33.8% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $2.63B | 7.6% of assets |
| Inventory | $4.08B | 11.8% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $23.80B | 69.0% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
LYB quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Industrial Organic Chemicals
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (Industrial Organic Chemicals): 24 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| LYB Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. | ▶ | $20.68B |
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc | ▼ | $23.14B |
| WLK Westlake Corp | ▶ | $8.09B |
| SXT Sensient Technologies Corp | ▼ | $5.69B |
| MEOH Methanex Corp | ▶ | $5.02B |
| REX Rex American Resources Corp | ▶ | $1.38B |
| GPRE Green Plains Inc. | ▶ | $1.01B |
| BAK Braskem Sa | ▲ | $750M |
| WLKP Westlake Chemical Partners Lp | ▶ | $733M |
| GEVO Gevo, Inc. | ▲ | $289M |
| ALTO Alto Ingredients, Inc. | ▼ | $268M |
| FF Futurefuel Corp. | ▼ | $245M |
| LODE Comstock Inc. | ▶ | $136M |
| CDXS Codexis, Inc. | ▲ | $136M |
| AMTX Aemetis, Inc | ▶ | $105M |
| LNZA Lanzatech Global, Inc. | ▼ | $61M |
| SAFX Xcf Global, Inc. | ▼ | $58M |
| VGAS Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. | ▲ | $18M |
| TOMZ Tomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | ▲ | $12M |
| GWTI Greenway Technologies, Inc. & Subsidiaries | ▶ | $9M |
| CLNV Clean Vision Corp | ▼ | $5M |
| CNEY Cn Energy Group. Inc. | ▼ | $5M |
| QGAI Quantum Genesis Ai Corp. | ▼ | $2M |
| SUIC Suic Worldwide Holdings Ltd. | ▼ | N/A |
Where LYB sits on the market map
Industrial Applications and Services · Industrial Organic Chemicals
News
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock news
What to expect from LyondellBasell's next quarterly earnings report
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB), headquartered in Houston, Texas, operates as a chemical company. Valued at $19.8 billion by market cap, the company manufactures plastic, chemical, and fuel ...
LYB - LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is currently listed on NYSE under LYB. One share of LYB stock can currently be purchased for approximately $62.67. Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. listed on the NASDAQ ...
FAQ
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. (LYB) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, LYB is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. stock predictions?
For LYB, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. forecasts updated?
Lyondellbasell Industries N.V. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Lyondellbasell Industries N.V.'s industry peers?
24 issuers in our coverage, LYB included, share the SEC industry code Industrial Organic Chemicals. The largest are: International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF), Westlake Corp (WLK), Sensient Technologies Corp (SXT), Methanex Corp (MEOH), Rex American Resources Corp (REX), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.