Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, TPB is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.26B.
For TPB, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 57.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How TPB ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.26B | – |
| P/E Ratio | 20.21x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92x | – |
| Dividend Yield | 0.48% | – |
| EPS | $3.10 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $21.45 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $25.30 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.98 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 10.4% | – |
| ROA | 5.2% | – |
| ROIC | 9.8% | – |
| Gross Margin | 59.2% | – |
| Operating Margin | 14.8% | – |
| Net Margin | 8.8% | – |
| EBT Margin | 13.7% | – |
| Tax Rate | 13.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 5.67x | – |
| Quick Ratio | 4.16x | – |
| D/E Ratio | 0.93x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 1.99x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 1.0x | – |
| Working Capital | $412M | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $32M | – |
| Free Cash Flow | $20M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$13M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | -46.5% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -62.4% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 3.9% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.5% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.59x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 22.4x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 1.6x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 12.8x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 16 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 235 days | – |
| Payables Period | 62 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 189 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $507M | – |
| Operating Income | $75M | – |
| Net Income | $45M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $225M | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $207M | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TPB | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.30 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 9.7% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 20M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 2.0% | – |
| EPS Growth | 37.8% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $500M | 58.5% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $268M | 31.4% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $23M | 2.7% of assets |
| Inventory | $133M | 15.6% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $401M | 46.9% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $53M | 6.2% of assets |
TPB quarterly financials and insider trading
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Turning Point Brands, Inc. (Tobacco Products): 1 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | ▶ | $1.26B |
Where TPB sits on the market map
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) stock news
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Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, TPB is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Turning Point Brands, Inc. stock predictions?
For TPB, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 57.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Turning Point Brands, Inc. forecasts updated?
Turning Point Brands, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.