Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, AMBP is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.80B.
For AMBP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -4.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How AMBP ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Metal Cans peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.80B | – |
| EPS | $-0.10 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.95 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.99 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 14.8% | – |
| Gross Margin | 12.7% | – |
| Operating Margin | 4.4% | – |
| EBT Margin | 0.2% | – |
| Tax Rate | 54.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.06x | – |
| Quick Ratio | 0.77x | – |
| Working Capital | $111M | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.34B | – |
| Free Cash Flow | $593M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$750M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | 22.2% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | 0.0% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 4.5% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 5.7% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 2.31x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 28.1x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 22.5x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 13 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 16 days | – |
| Payables Period | 49 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -20 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $13.12B | – |
| Operating Income | $583M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $732M | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $11.45B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AMBP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 598M | – |
| EPS Growth | -125.0% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $1.84B | |
| Accounts Receivable | $467M | |
| Inventory | $509M | |
| Total Liabilities | $6.35B | |
| Short-term Debt | $190M |
AMBP quarterly financials and insider trading
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (Metal Cans): 4 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) stock news
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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, AMBP is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. stock predictions?
For AMBP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -4.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. forecasts updated?
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s industry peers?
4 issuers in our coverage, AMBP included, share the SEC industry code Metal Cans. The largest are: Ball Corp (BALL), Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK), Silgan Holdings Inc (SLGN).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.