Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Algoma Steel Group Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $423M. It ranks number 11 by market capitalization among the 11 Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its ROE of -152.3% is the lowest of the 8 peers that report one. Its Gross Margin of -1.2% is the lowest of the 9 peers that report one.
For ASTL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 24.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 15.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How ASTL ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) peers listed below that report each metric. Statement values were filed in CAD and are shown converted to USD (flows at the trailing twelve-month average rate, balances at the balance-sheet date rate).
Valuation & Market
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $423M | 11/11 |
| EPS | $-5.87 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $64.89 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-7.43 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -152.3% | 8/8 |
| ROA | -35.4% | 8/8 |
| ROIC | -67.3% | 7/7 |
| Gross Margin | -1.2% | 9/9 |
| Operating Margin | -11.5% | 7/7 |
| Net Margin | -7.9% | 7/7 |
| EBT Margin | -10.4% | 10/10 |
| Tax Rate | 24.6% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.18x | 7/10 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.03x | 8/10 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.31x | 1/11 |
| Financial Leverage | 4.31x | 1/11 |
| Working Capital | $426M | 7/9 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $263M | 7/10 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$780M | 7/7 |
| Capital Spending | -$1.04B | 6/7 |
| FCF/Sales | -11.4% | 8/8 |
| CapEx/Sales | 15.3% | 1/8 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 4.49x | 1/10 |
| Inventory Turnover | 16.9x | 1/9 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 9.2x | 1/9 |
| Days Inventory | 22 days | 9/9 |
Income Statement
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $6.81B | 5/9 |
| Operating Income | -$781M | 7/7 |
| Net Income | -$536M | 8/8 |
| SG&A Expense | $308M | 6/10 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $6.89B | 6/8 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | ASTL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 105M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions, converted from CAD)
| Total Current Assets | $789M | |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $56M | |
| Inventory | $415M | |
| Total Liabilities | $1.18B |
ASTL quarterly financials and insider trading
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Algoma Steel Group Inc. (Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)): 11 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| ASTL Algoma Steel Group Inc. | ▲ | $423M |
| NUE Nucor Corp | ▶ | $58.15B |
| MT Arcelormittal | ▼ | $47.99B |
| STLD Steel Dynamics Inc | ▲ | $34.48B |
| TS Tenaris Sa | ▼ | $30.88B |
| CRS Carpenter Technology Corp | ▼ | $18.69B |
| TX Ternium S.A. | ▼ | $11.21B |
| CMC Commercial Metals Co | ▼ | $7.19B |
| SXC Suncoke Energy, Inc. | ▲ | $870M |
| MTUS Metallus Inc. | ▶ | $852M |
| TWI Titan International Inc | ▶ | $429M |
Where ASTL sits on the market map
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) stock news
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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Algoma Steel Group Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock predictions?
For ASTL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 24.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 15.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Algoma Steel Group Inc. forecasts updated?
Algoma Steel Group Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s industry peers?
11 issuers in our coverage, ASTL included, share the SEC industry code Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens). The largest are: Nucor Corp (NUE), Arcelormittal (MT), Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD), Tenaris Sa (TS), Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS), Ternium S.A. (TX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.