Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Fossil Group, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Fossil Group, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $409M.
For FOSL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 12.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How FOSL ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $409M | – |
| P/B Ratio | 4.55x | – |
| EPS | $-1.13 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $1.52 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $18.33 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-0.81 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -66.8% | – |
| ROA | -9.2% | – |
| ROIC | -0.1% | – |
| Gross Margin | 59.3% | – |
| Operating Margin | -0.0% | – |
| Net Margin | -6.0% | – |
| EBT Margin | -3.0% | – |
| Tax Rate | -98.8% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.76x | – |
| Quick Ratio | 1.05x | – |
| D/E Ratio | 6.44x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 7.27x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 0.1x | – |
| Working Capital | $189M | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$19M | – |
| Free Cash Flow | -$48M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$28M | – |
| FCF/Sales | -4.4% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.6% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.66x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 9.8x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 2.5x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 35.1x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 37 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 147 days | – |
| Payables Period | 103 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 82 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.08B | – |
| Operating Income | -$280K | – |
| Net Income | -$60M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $527M | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $441M | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | FOSL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 59M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $438M | 67.0% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $79M | 12.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $111M | 17.0% of assets |
| Inventory | $178M | 27.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $579M | 88.7% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $124M | 19.0% of assets |
FOSL quarterly financials and insider trading
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Fossil Group, Inc. (Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts): 2 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) stock news
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Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Fossil Group, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Fossil Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For FOSL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 12.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Fossil Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
Fossil Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Fossil Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
2 issuers in our coverage, FOSL included, share the SEC industry code Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts. The largest are: Movado Group Inc (MOV).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.