The GEO Group, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Record-breaking third quarter results were driven by revenue growth from four ICE facility activations entered into in 2025, ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Geo Group Inc (GEO) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
42.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$3.31B
mid-cap · #3 of 6 peers
Summary
Geo Group Inc (GEO) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Geo Group Inc every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Geo Group Inc is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.31B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 6 General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For GEO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 42.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 48.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, GEO included.
Price
GEO price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How GEO ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Geo Group Inc (GEO) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.31B | 3/6 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.78x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 2.18x | – |
| EPS | $1.97 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $11.52 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.49 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.20 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 19.2% | – |
| ROA | 7.8% | – |
| ROIC | 9.4% | – |
| Operating Margin | 11.2% | – |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | – |
| EBT Margin | 14.8% | – |
| Tax Rate | 25.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65x | 3/5 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.47x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 2.47x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 2.6x | – |
| Working Capital | $251M | 2/5 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $199M | 3/5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $26M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$172M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | -16.6% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -79.8% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 0.9% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 6.1% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.76x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 5.3x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.5x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 69 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.83B | – |
| Operating Income | $316M | – |
| Net Income | $292M | 2/5 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | GEO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 132M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 222.2% | – |
| EPS Growth | 189.7% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $635M | 17.0% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $55M | 1.5% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $532M | 14.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $2.23B | 59.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $328M | 8.8% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
GEO quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs
Geo Group Inc (GEO) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Geo Group Inc (General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs): 6 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Real Estate & Construction · General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs
News
Geo Group Inc (GEO) stock news
GEO Group Earnings Call Signals Strong ICE-Fueled Growth
Geo Group Inc () has held its Q3 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call. GEO Group delivered a strongly positive third-quarter earnings call, led by record rev ...
GEO forecasts Q4 2026 revenue $777M-$827M with adjusted EBITDA $149M-$154M as ICE activations expand
Versus Q2, management language shifted toward greater certainty on capital returns and leverage positioning, including "we have reset our capital strategy to remain at or below this net leverage level ...
FAQ
Geo Group Inc (GEO) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Geo Group Inc (GEO) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Geo Group Inc every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Geo Group Inc stock predictions?
For GEO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 42.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 48.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Geo Group Inc forecasts updated?
Geo Group Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Geo Group Inc's industry peers?
6 issuers in our coverage, GEO included, share the SEC industry code General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs. The largest are: Lennar Corp /New/ (LEN), Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP), Boxabl Inc. (BXBL), Springview Holdings Ltd (SPHL), Eline Entertainment Group, Inc. (EEGI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.