Home Depot's rising average ticket offsets softer customer visits
The Home Depot, Inc. HD is witnessing improving sales momentum, supported by higher average customer spending, resilient ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
▼ Bearish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Bottom 35%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
30.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$308.91B
mega-cap
Summary
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Home Depot, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Home Depot, Inc. is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $308.91B.
For HD, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 30.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 11.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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HD price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How HD ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-08-02
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $308.91B | – |
| P/E Ratio | 21.67x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 18.59x | – |
| Dividend Yield | 2.98% | – |
| EPS | $14.29 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $16.66 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $169.57 | – |
| FCF/Share | $16.84 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 79.4% | – |
| ROA | 12.1% | – |
| ROIC | 28.3% | – |
| Gross Margin | 33.2% | – |
| Operating Margin | 12.7% | – |
| Net Margin | 8.0% | – |
| EBT Margin | 11.3% | – |
| Tax Rate | 24.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.08x | – |
| Quick Ratio | 0.31x | – |
| D/E Ratio | 5.58x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 6.58x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 12.9x | – |
| Working Capital | $2.73B | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $20.49B | – |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.81B | – |
| Capital Spending | -$3.68B | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | 22.7% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | 55.4% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 9.9% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.2% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.55x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 24.3x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 4.2x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 6.7x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 15 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 87 days | – |
| Payables Period | 44 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 58 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $169.18B | – |
| Operating Income | $21.02B | – |
| Net Income | $13.20B | – |
| SG&A Expense | $31.79B | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $113.00B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | HD | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $9.24 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 64.7% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 998M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -9.5% | – |
| EPS Growth | -2.9% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $37.72B | 34.5% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $2.08B | 1.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $6.96B | 6.4% of assets |
| Inventory | $26.85B | 24.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $92.77B | 84.8% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $21.40B | 19.6% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
HD quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Home Depot, Inc. (Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers): 4 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Trade & Services · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers
News
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock news
How are strategic investments shaping Home Depot's future?
The Home Depot Inc. HD continues to strengthen its competitive position through investments in technology, supply-chain ...
HD - The Home Depot, Inc.
The Home Depot, Inc. is currently listed on NYSE under HD. One share of HD stock can currently be purchased for approximately $312.21. Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) overvalued or undervalued? The Home ...
FAQ
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Home Depot, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Home Depot, Inc. stock predictions?
For HD, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 30.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 11.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Home Depot, Inc. forecasts updated?
Home Depot, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Home Depot, Inc.'s industry peers?
4 issuers in our coverage, HD included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers. The largest are: Builders Firstsource, Inc. (BLDR), Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND), Jewett Cameron Trading Co Ltd (JCTC).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.