Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.78B. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 5 Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For HOG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 25.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 46.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How HOG ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.78B | 1/5 |
| P/E Ratio | 16.94x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90x | 4/5 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.97% | – |
| EPS | $1.58 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $29.78 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $40.74 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-1.28 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5% | – |
| ROA | 2.8% | – |
| ROIC | 4.4% | – |
| Gross Margin | 33.4% | – |
| Operating Margin | 5.0% | – |
| Net Margin | 4.8% | – |
| EBT Margin | 6.8% | – |
| Tax Rate | 32.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.90x | 4/5 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.70x | 3/5 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.33x | 4/5 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.34x | 4/5 |
| Working Capital | $2.18B | 1/5 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$260K | – |
| Free Cash Flow | -$133M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$133M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | -100.0% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -116.2% | – |
| FCF/Sales | -3.1% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.1% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.59x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 14.1x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 5.6x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 6.1x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 26 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 65 days | – |
| Payables Period | 53 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 38 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $4.24B | – |
| Operating Income | $213M | – |
| Net Income | $203M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $1.19B | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $2.82B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | HOG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.80 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 50.6% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 104M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -16.6% | – |
| EPS Growth | -22.6% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $4.59B | 63.3% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.90B | 26.2% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $302M | 4.2% of assets |
| Inventory | $501M | 6.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $4.13B | 57.0% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $2.00B | 27.6% of assets |
HOG quarterly financials and insider trading
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Harley-Davidson, Inc. (Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts): 5 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) stock news
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Harley-Davidson, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Harley-Davidson, Inc. stock predictions?
For HOG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 25.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 46.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Harley-Davidson, Inc. forecasts updated?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s industry peers?
5 issuers in our coverage, HOG included, share the SEC industry code Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts. The largest are: Fox Factory Holding Corp (FOXF), Livewire Group, Inc. (LVWR), Leatt Corp (LEAT), Lobo Technologies Ltd. (LOBO).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.