Altria Group Inc. stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors despite daily gains
This was the stock's third consecutive day of gains.
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Alpha
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
61.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$125.41B
large-cap · #3 of 5 peers
Summary
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, MO is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Altria Group, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $125.41B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 5 Cigarettes issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 61.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How MO ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Cigarettes peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $125.41B | 3/5 |
| P/E Ratio | 13.96x | – |
| Dividend Yield | 5.63% | – |
| EPS | $5.38 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $14.05 | – |
| FCF/Share | $5.46 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 23.9% | – |
| ROIC | 42.9% | 1/5 |
| Gross Margin | 75.8% | – |
| Operating Margin | 46.8% | 1/5 |
| Net Margin | 34.0% | – |
| EBT Margin | 44.2% | 1/5 |
| Tax Rate | 23.2% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52x | 5/5 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.38x | 5/5 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.5x | – |
| Working Capital | -$3.75B | 5/5 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.41B | 3/5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.11B | 3/5 |
| Capital Spending | -$296M | 3/5 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 6.0% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | 4.4% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 38.9% | 1/5 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.3% | 4/5 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.70x | 2/5 |
| Receivables Turnover | 76.7x | 1/5 |
| Inventory Turnover | 5.3x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 13.3x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 5 days | 5/5 |
| Days Inventory | 68 days | – |
| Payables Period | 44 days | – |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 29 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $23.46B | 3/5 |
| Operating Income | $10.97B | 3/5 |
| Net Income | $7.97B | – |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $5.67B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $4.23 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 78.6% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 1670M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -9.3% | – |
| EPS Growth | 18.8% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $4.02B | 12.1% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $2.37B | 7.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $306M | 0.9% of assets |
| Inventory | $1.06B | 3.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $35.99B | |
| Short-term Debt | $7.09B | 21.2% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
MO quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Cigarettes
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Altria Group, Inc. (Cigarettes): 5 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Manufacturing · Cigarettes
News
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock news
Altria Group stock: UBS reiterates USD 79.00 target for Altria Group stock
UBS reiterated a Buy rating and a USD 79.00 target for Altria Group on October 13, 2026, according to Investing.com. The ...
What you need to know ahead of Altria Group's earnings release
Valued at a market cap of $119.5 billion, Altria Group, Inc. (MO) operates in the tobacco and nicotine product sector.
FAQ
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, MO is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Altria Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For MO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 61.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Altria Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
Altria Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Altria Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
5 issuers in our coverage, MO included, share the SEC industry code Cigarettes. The largest are: Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), British American Tobacco P.L.C. (BTI), Ispire Technology Inc. (ISPR), 22nd Century Group, Inc. (XXII).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.