Starbucks shares fall on potential $39 billion Chipotle takeover report
Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX, XETRA:SRB) shares fell over 3% to $90.40 on Thursday after the Financial Times (FT) reported ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
Alpha
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
45.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$110.44B
large-cap · #1 of 10 peers
Summary
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, SBUX is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Starbucks Corp is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $110.44B. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 10 Retail-Eating & Drinking Places issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SBUX, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 45.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 20.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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SBUX price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How SBUX ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-28
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Eating & Drinking Places peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $110.44B | 1/10 |
| P/E Ratio | 56.65x | 4/5 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.55% | – |
| EPS | $1.71 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $33.63 | – |
| FCF/Share | $3.19 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.0% | 1/6 |
| ROIC | 16.2% | 1/5 |
| Operating Margin | 7.8% | 3/7 |
| Net Margin | 5.2% | 2/6 |
| EBT Margin | 8.0% | 3/7 |
| Tax Rate | 35.6% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.76x | 6/9 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.54x | 6/6 |
| Interest Coverage | 7.3x | 4/10 |
| Working Capital | -$2.38B | 8/8 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.99B | 1/8 |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.64B | 1/6 |
| Capital Spending | -$1.34B | 6/6 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 1.7% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | 61.6% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 9.5% | 2/6 |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.5% | 5/6 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.35x | 1/5 |
| Receivables Turnover | 29.4x | 5/5 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 5.5x | 2/6 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 12 days | 1/5 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $38.34B | 1/6 |
| Operating Income | $2.98B | 1/8 |
| Net Income | $1.98B | 1/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SBUX | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $2.47 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 144.4% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 1140M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -24.7% | – |
| EPS Growth | -32.4% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $7.53B | 26.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $3.45B | 12.2% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.30B | 4.6% of assets |
| Inventory | $2.21B | 7.8% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $35.96B | |
| Short-term Debt | $8.14B | 28.8% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
SBUX quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Retail-Eating & Drinking Places
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Starbucks Corp (Retail-Eating & Drinking Places): 10 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SBUX Starbucks Corp | ▶ | $110.44B |
| LKNCY Luckin Coffee Inc. | ▶ | $10.67B |
| BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | ▼ | $7.19B |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | ▶ | $3.00B |
| WEN Wendy's Co | ▲ | $1.28B |
| CNNE Cannae Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $688M |
| BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. | ▶ | $179M |
| EAIQ Eyeonix Aiq, Inc. | ▼ | $33M |
| SDOT Sadot Group Inc. | ▼ | $11M |
| KITL Kisses From Italy Inc. | ▲ | $510K |
Where SBUX sits on the market map
Trade & Services · Retail-Eating & Drinking Places
News
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) stock news
Starbucks stock rises: What's going on?
Starbucks Corp SBUX shares are climbing Monday. The company ruled out buying Chipotle Mexican Grill. Starbucks stock is showing upward movement. What’s pushing SBUX stock higher? Starbucks Rises After ...
Morgan Stanley keeps its USD 115 target for Starbucks stock
Morgan Stanley sees 7.00 percent North American comparable-sales growth. Starbucks stock costs EUR 86.08 on October 16, 2026, ...
FAQ
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Starbucks Corp (SBUX) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, SBUX is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Starbucks Corp stock predictions?
For SBUX, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 45.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 20.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Starbucks Corp forecasts updated?
Starbucks Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Starbucks Corp's industry peers?
10 issuers in our coverage, SBUX included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Eating & Drinking Places. The largest are: Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY), Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS), Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK), Wendy's Co (WEN), Cannae Holdings, Inc. (CNNE), Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. (BRCB).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.