Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Tilly's, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Tilly's, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $144M. It ranks number 5 by market capitalization among the 7 Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For TLYS, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 12.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -19.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How TLYS ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $144M | 5/7 |
| P/E Ratio | 78.33x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65x | 4/6 |
| EPS | $0.06 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $2.84 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $19.06 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.51 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 0.4% | 5/7 |
| Gross Margin | 32.3% | 5/7 |
| Operating Margin | 0.1% | 5/7 |
| EBT Margin | 0.4% | 4/7 |
| Tax Rate | 11.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.16x | 4/7 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.59x | 2/7 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.99x | 2/6 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.99x | 2/6 |
| Working Capital | $22M | 5/7 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $21M | 5/8 |
| Free Cash Flow | $16M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$5M | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -45.3% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 2.7% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.9% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.68x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 46.3x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 4.9x | 2/7 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 18.2x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 8 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 74 days | 6/7 |
| Payables Period | 39 days | 4/6 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 43 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $583M | – |
| Operating Income | $750K | 5/8 |
| SG&A Expense | $188M | 5/8 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $395M | 4/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TLYS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 31M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $162M | 46.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $52M | 15.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $13M | 3.6% of assets |
| Inventory | $80M | 23.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $260M | 74.9% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $97M | 28.0% of assets |
TLYS quarterly financials and insider trading
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Tilly's, Inc. (Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores): 8 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) stock news
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Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Tilly's, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Tilly's, Inc. stock predictions?
For TLYS, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 12.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -19.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Tilly's, Inc. forecasts updated?
Tilly's, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Tilly's, Inc.'s industry peers?
8 issuers in our coverage, TLYS included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores. The largest are: Citi Trends Inc (CTRN), Torrid Holdings Inc. (CURV), Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ), Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE), Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH), Digital Brands Group, Inc. (DBGI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.