United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, UPS is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
United Parcel Service Inc is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $82.93B. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 5 Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For UPS, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 30.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 4.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How UPS ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $82.93B | 1/5 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.12x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 5.50x | – |
| Dividend Yield | 6.52% | – |
| EPS | $5.38 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $17.71 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $105.70 | – |
| FCF/Share | $6.41 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 30.3% | – |
| ROA | 6.4% | – |
| ROIC | 11.7% | – |
| Operating Margin | 7.3% | 2/5 |
| Net Margin | 5.1% | 2/5 |
| EBT Margin | 6.5% | 2/5 |
| Tax Rate | 22.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.18x | 4/5 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.73x | – |
| Financial Leverage | 4.73x | – |
| Interest Coverage | 2.6x | – |
| Working Capital | $2.66B | 1/5 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $8.87B | 1/5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.46B | – |
| Capital Spending | -$3.41B | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | 18.6% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | 54.2% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 6.1% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.8% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.26x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 8.4x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.4x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 43 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $89.93B | – |
| Operating Income | $6.58B | 1/5 |
| Net Income | $4.57B | 1/5 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | UPS | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $6.36 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 118.2% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 851M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -20.2% | – |
| EPS Growth | -19.8% | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $17.55B | 24.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $4.65B | 6.5% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $10.71B | 15.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $56.17B | 78.8% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $8.90B | 12.5% of assets |
UPS quarterly financials and insider trading
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as United Parcel Service Inc (Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)): 5 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) stock forecast FAQ
What is the United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, UPS is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are United Parcel Service Inc stock predictions?
For UPS, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 30.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 4.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are United Parcel Service Inc forecasts updated?
United Parcel Service Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are United Parcel Service Inc's industry peers?
5 issuers in our coverage, UPS included, share the SEC industry code Trucking & Courier Services (No Air). The largest are: Tfi International Inc. (TFII), Elite Express Holding Inc. (ETS), Shengfeng Development Ltd (SFWL), Toppoint Holdings Inc. (TOPP).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.