Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Vital Farms, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Vital Farms, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $361M. It ranks number 9 by market capitalization among the 21 Food and Kindred Products issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For VITL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 59.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 52.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, VITL included.
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How VITL ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Food and Kindred Products peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $361M | 9/21 |
| P/E Ratio | 23.33x | 2/6 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.27x | 9/14 |
| EPS | $0.36 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $6.61 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $17.83 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-2.94 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 0.1% | 8/13 |
| Gross Margin | 28.1% | 8/17 |
| Operating Margin | 0.0% | 9/16 |
| EBT Margin | 0.2% | 8/17 |
| Tax Rate | 91.0% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.10x | 9/18 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.60x | 9/16 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.77x | 12/16 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.77x | 12/16 |
| Working Capital | $15M | 9/18 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$17M | 17/19 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$126M | 8/9 |
| Capital Spending | -$109M | 4/9 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -157.1% | 10/10 |
| FCF/Sales | -16.5% | 7/9 |
| CapEx/Sales | 14.3% | 1/9 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.53x | 2/10 |
| Receivables Turnover | 15.1x | 2/9 |
| Inventory Turnover | 7.5x | 5/14 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 4.0x | 8/10 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 24 days | 8/9 |
| Days Inventory | 49 days | 10/14 |
| Payables Period | 37 days | 7/13 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 36 days | 6/9 |
Income Statement
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $766M | 9/11 |
| Operating Income | $330K | 8/17 |
| SG&A Expense | $173M | 10/14 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $550M | 11/19 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | VITL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 43M | – |
| EPS Growth | -69.5% | 5/8 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $163M | 32.4% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $21M | 4.2% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $51M | 10.1% of assets |
| Inventory | $74M | 14.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $218M | 43.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $91M | 18.2% of assets |
VITL quarterly financials and insider trading
Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Vital Farms, Inc. (Food and Kindred Products): 22 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| VITL Vital Farms, Inc. | ▲ | $361M |
| MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | ▼ | $82.47B |
| CAG Conagra Brands Inc. | ▼ | $6.91B |
| CPB Campbell's Co | ▶ | $5.93B |
| NOMD Nomad Foods Ltd | ▼ | $1.67B |
| FLO Flowers Foods Inc | ▼ | $1.30B |
| BRBR Bellring Brands, Inc. | ▼ | $1.10B |
| SMPL Simply Good Foods Co | ▼ | $990M |
| OFRM Once Upon A Farm, Pbc | ▶ | $729M |
| OTLY Oatly Group Ab | ▶ | $355M |
| BGS B&G Foods, Inc. | ▲ | $186M |
| BYND Beyond Meat, Inc. | ▲ | $118M |
| GWLL Goldenwell Biotech, Inc. | ▼ | $59M |
| SOWG Sow Good Inc. | ▼ | $42M |
| BOF Branchout Food Inc. | ▲ | $34M |
| LSF Laird Superfood, Inc. | ▲ | $30M |
| BRLS Borealis Foods Inc. | ▼ | $23M |
| HAIN Hain Celestial Group Inc | ▶ | $21M |
| STKH Steakholder Foods Ltd. | ▶ | $16M |
| CHSN Chanson International Holding | ▼ | $2M |
| TRWD Tradewinds Universal | ▼ | $660K |
| NXMH Next Meats Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | N/A |
Where VITL sits on the market map
Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) stock news
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Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Vital Farms, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Vital Farms, Inc. stock predictions?
For VITL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 59.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 52.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Vital Farms, Inc. forecasts updated?
Vital Farms, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Vital Farms, Inc.'s industry peers?
22 issuers in our coverage, VITL included, share the SEC industry code Food and Kindred Products. The largest are: Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Campbell's Co (CPB), Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD), Flowers Foods Inc (FLO), Bellring Brands, Inc. (BRBR).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.