VNCE trades at a discount despite 320% rally in a year: What's next?
Vince Holding Corp. VNCE has been benefiting from strong demand across its direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels, ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
▲ Bullish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Top 35%
of 5185 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
17.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$166M
small-cap · #4 of 7 peers
Summary
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Vince Holding Corp. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Vince Holding Corp. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $166M. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 7 Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For VNCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 10.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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VNCE price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How VNCE ranks among 5185 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-08-01
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $166M | 4/7 |
| P/E Ratio | 35.74x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 2.83x | 3/6 |
| EPS | $0.36 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $4.54 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $24.31 | – |
| FCF/Share | $1.62 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 8.5% | 2/7 |
| Gross Margin | 52.5% | 1/7 |
| Operating Margin | 4.3% | 1/7 |
| EBT Margin | 4.1% | 1/7 |
| Tax Rate | 40.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.49x | 3/7 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.46x | 4/7 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.89x | 4/6 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.89x | 4/6 |
| Interest Coverage | 19.1x | 3/6 |
| Working Capital | $35M | 3/7 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $23M | 4/8 |
| Free Cash Flow | $21M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$2M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | 67.5% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | 190.5% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 6.7% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.6% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.37x | – |
| Receivables Turnover | 11.6x | – |
| Inventory Turnover | 2.0x | 6/7 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 39.6x | – |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 32 days | – |
| Days Inventory | 179 days | 2/7 |
| Payables Period | 82 days | 2/6 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 128 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $315M | – |
| Operating Income | $13M | 3/8 |
| SG&A Expense | $152M | 6/8 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $149M | 6/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | VNCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 13M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $106M | 46.5% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1M | 0.4% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $27M | 11.9% of assets |
| Inventory | $73M | 32.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $170M | 74.3% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $38M | 16.5% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
VNCE quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Vince Holding Corp. (Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores): 8 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Trade & Services · Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores
News
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) stock news
Vince Holding Corp. Reports First Quarter 2026 Results
NEW YORK, June 16, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Vince Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: VNCE) ("VNCE" or the "Company"), a global retail platform, today reported its financial results for the first quarter ended May 2 ...
Vince Holding's DTC comps jump 18.4%: Can demand remain strong?
Vince Holding Corp. VNCE continues to witness strong customer demand, supported by healthy full-price selling and favorable ...
FAQ
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Vince Holding Corp. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Vince Holding Corp. stock predictions?
For VNCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 10.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Vince Holding Corp. forecasts updated?
Vince Holding Corp. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Vince Holding Corp.'s industry peers?
8 issuers in our coverage, VNCE included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores. The largest are: Citi Trends Inc (CTRN), Torrid Holdings Inc. (CURV), Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ), Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS), Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH), Digital Brands Group, Inc. (DBGI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.