Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (ACRE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026

On Oct. 16, 2026, ACRE is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $199M. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 Real Estate Investment Trusts issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its P/B Ratio of 0.41x is the lowest of the 57 peers that report one. Its Dividend Yield of 16.93% is the highest of the 54 peers that report one.

For ACRE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 30.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 18.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report

Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)

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