Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, BXMT is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.77B. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 Real Estate Investment Trusts issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Dividend Yield of 17.99% is the highest of the 55 peers that report one.
For BXMT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 40.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 24.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How BXMT ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Real Estate Investment Trusts peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.77B | 60/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 87.75x | 6/55 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.54x | 56/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 17.99% | 1/55 |
| EPS | $0.12 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $19.35 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $2.39 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 0.5% | 47/52 |
| ROA | 0.1% | 50/55 |
| Net Margin | 3.8% | 47/53 |
| EBT Margin | 5.2% | 40/45 |
| Tax Rate | 27.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 4.95x | 8/57 |
| Financial Leverage | 5.95x | 8/56 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $353M | 57/60 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 7.2% | 29/59 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.02x | 55/55 |
Income Statement
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $403M | 56/56 |
| Net Income | $15M | 50/55 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | BXMT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.89 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 1575.0% | 1/50 |
| Shares Outstanding | 169M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $433M | 2.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $16.14B | 83.1% of assets |
BXMT quarterly financials and insider trading
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (Real Estate Investment Trusts): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | ▶ | $1.77B |
| WELL Welltower Inc. | ▼ | $161.03B |
| PLD Prologis, Inc. | ▶ | $117.91B |
| EQIX Equinix Inc | ▼ | $97.29B |
| AMT American Tower Corp /Ma/ | ▼ | $86.33B |
| SPG Simon Property Group Inc. | ▼ | $65.81B |
| DLR Digital Realty Trust, Inc. | ▼ | $60.44B |
| O Realty Income Corp | ▶ | $52.56B |
| PSA Public Storage | ▼ | $51.87B |
| VMRK Vivmark Residential | ▼ | $47.34B |
| VTR Ventas, Inc. | ▶ | $43.53B |
| CCI Crown Castle Inc. | ▲ | $35.00B |
| IRM Iron Mountain Inc | ▼ | $33.49B |
| EXR Extra Space Storage Inc. | ▼ | $30.74B |
| VICI Vici Properties Inc. | ▼ | $25.83B |
| SBAC Sba Communications Corp | ▼ | $19.49B |
| ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. | ▼ | $17.32B |
| HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | ▶ | $16.65B |
| KIM Kimco Realty Corp | ▼ | $15.37B |
| LAMR Lamar Advertising Co/New | ▼ | $15.00B |
| WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | ▶ | $14.68B |
| SUI Sun Communities Inc | ▼ | $14.33B |
| WY Weyerhaeuser Co | ▶ | $13.97B |
| NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc | ▼ | $13.89B |
| OHI Omega Healthcare Investors Inc | ▶ | $13.80B |
| MAA Mid America Apartment Communities Inc. | ▼ | $13.65B |
| REG Regency Centers Corp | ▼ | $13.36B |
| AHR American Healthcare Reit, Inc. | ▼ | $12.41B |
| ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc | ▼ | $11.87B |
| GLPI Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. | ▼ | $11.75B |
| UDR Udr, Inc. | ▼ | $11.30B |
| AMH American Homes 4 Rent | ▼ | $11.26B |
| EGP Eastgroup Properties Inc | ▼ | $10.56B |
| BXP Bxp, Inc. | ▶ | $9.45B |
| FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | ▼ | $9.18B |
| CUBE Cubesmart | ▶ | $8.89B |
| CTRE Caretrust Reit, Inc. | ▶ | $8.64B |
| BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. | ▼ | $8.49B |
| REXR Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | ▼ | $8.23B |
| RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | ▶ | $7.92B |
| NNN Nnn Reit, Inc. | ▼ | $7.90B |
| FR First Industrial Realty Trust Inc | ▶ | $7.79B |
| LINE Lineage, Inc. | ▼ | $7.77B |
| ADC Agree Realty Corp | ▼ | $7.65B |
| ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | ▲ | $7.25B |
| STAG Stag Industrial, Inc. | ▼ | $6.66B |
| MAC Macerich Co | ▶ | $6.55B |
| VNO Vornado Realty Trust | ▶ | $6.20B |
| HR Healthcare Realty Trust Inc | ▼ | $6.06B |
| EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | ▶ | $5.64B |
| RYN Rayonier Inc | ▲ | $5.64B |
| OUT Outfront Media Inc. | ▼ | $5.28B |
| KRG Kite Realty Group Trust | ▼ | $5.06B |
| SBRA Sabra Health Care Reit, Inc. | ▶ | $4.93B |
| PECO Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. | ▼ | $4.91B |
| RITM Rithm Capital Corp. | ▶ | $4.86B |
| STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc. | ▲ | $4.67B |
| CUZ Cousins Properties Inc | ▶ | $4.55B |
| EPR Epr Properties | ▼ | $4.27B |
| KRC Kilroy Realty Corp | ▶ | $4.12B |
Where BXMT sits on the market map
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) stock news
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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, BXMT is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. stock predictions?
For BXMT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 40.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 24.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. forecasts updated?
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, BXMT included, share the SEC industry code Real Estate Investment Trusts. The largest are: Welltower Inc. (WELL), Prologis, Inc. (PLD), Equinix Inc (EQIX), American Tower Corp /Ma/ (AMT), Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG), Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.