Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Our AI ranks Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $7.99B. It ranks number 18 by market capitalization among the 60 State Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its ROE of 21.4% is the highest of the 52 peers that report one.
For CBSH, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 22.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 8.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, CBSH included.
Follow CBSH free90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the State Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $7.99B | 18/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 13.92x | 19/59 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.24x | 4/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% | 40/51 |
| EPS | $4.00 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $17.19 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $11.91 | – |
| FCF/Share | $8.46 | – |
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 21.4% | 1/52 |
| Net Margin | 9.0% | 52/53 |
| EBT Margin | 13.0% | 58/58 |
| Tax Rate | 22.2% | – |
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 11.92x | 6/59 |
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.26B | 11/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.21B | 4/45 |
| Capital Spending | -$49M | 36/45 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 131.6% | 6/54 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 145.2% | 4/40 |
| FCF/Sales | 71.0% | 4/44 |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.9% | 14/44 |
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 3.2x | 43/55 |
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.71B | 16/57 |
| Net Income | $527M | 16/53 |
| Metric | CBSH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.09 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 27.2% | 34/51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 143M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 0.0% | 46/52 |
| EPS Growth | 1.5% | 47/57 |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $2.91B | 9.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $29.39B | 92.3% of assets |
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ (State Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | ▼ | $7.99B |
| BNS Bank Of Nova Scotia | ▼ | $113.24B |
| DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft | ▼ | $61.98B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | ▶ | $45.68B |
| STT State Street Corp | ▶ | $45.52B |
| BBD Bank Bradesco | ▶ | $41.97B |
| MTB M&T Bank Corp | ▶ | $31.09B |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corp | ▲ | $30.29B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri | ▲ | $26.69B |
| FCNCA First Citizens Bancshares Inc /De/ | ▶ | $23.98B |
| EWBC East West Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $17.38B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | ▶ | $11.46B |
| BPOP Popular, Inc. | ▼ | $10.13B |
| SSB Southstate Bank Corp | ▼ | $9.90B |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corp | ▶ | $9.72B |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares Inc | ▼ | $8.15B |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | ▶ | $8.13B |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | ▶ | $8.05B |
| UBSI United Bankshares Inc/Wv | ▼ | $6.36B |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corp | ▶ | $5.86B |
| HOMB Home Bancshares Inc | ▼ | $5.84B |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $5.71B |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | ▼ | $5.47B |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp | ▼ | $5.44B |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | ▼ | $5.35B |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares Inc | ▶ | $4.37B |
| SFBS Servisfirst Bancshares, Inc. | ▶ | $4.30B |
| IBOC International Bancshares Corp | ▼ | $4.19B |
| FBP First Bancorp /Pr/ | ▼ | $4.18B |
| UCB United Community Banks Inc | ▼ | $4.11B |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | ▶ | $4.00B |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc/Tx | ▶ | $3.96B |
| CVBF Cvb Financial Corp | ▶ | $3.85B |
| INDB Independent Bank Corp | ▶ | $3.78B |
| RNST Renasant Corp | ▼ | $3.65B |
| FIBK First Interstate Bancsystem Inc | ▶ | $3.32B |
| MCHB Mechanics Bancorp | ▶ | $3.18B |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida | ▶ | $3.15B |
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | ▼ | $3.04B |
| BOH Bank Of Hawaii Corp | ▼ | $2.65B |
| FBK Fb Financial Corp | ▶ | $2.58B |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $2.53B |
| FBNC First Bancorp /Nc/ | ▶ | $2.50B |
| BUSE First Busey Corp /Nv/ | ▶ | $2.43B |
| SYBT Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $2.38B |
| BANR Banner Corp | ▼ | $2.30B |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | ▶ | $2.24B |
| OFG Ofg Bancorp | ▼ | $2.22B |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | ▶ | $2.17B |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $2.11B |
| SRCE 1st Source Corp | ▼ | $2.07B |
| GABC German American Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $1.88B |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc /Ky/ | ▶ | $1.83B |
| STBA S&T Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $1.72B |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $1.68B |
| TCBK Trico Bancshares / | ▶ | $1.66B |
| CNOB Connectone Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $1.65B |
| QCRH Qcr Holdings Inc | ▼ | $1.62B |
| LOB Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | ▲ | $1.62B |
| OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $1.59B |
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KANSAS CITY, Mo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--As publicly announced, the Annual Meeting of Shareholders will be held on Friday, April 24, 2026 at 9:30 a.m. Central Time. Shareholders of record as of the close of ...
KANSAS CITY, Mo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBSH) announced today that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share on the Company's common stock, ...
Our AI ranks Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
For CBSH, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 22.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 8.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
60 issuers in our coverage, CBSH included, share the SEC industry code State Commercial Banks. The largest are: Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS), Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street Corp (STT), Bank Bradesco (BBD), M&T Bank Corp (MTB).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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