Carvana Co. (CVNA) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Carvana Co. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Carvana Co. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $64.74B. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 18 Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its P/B Ratio of 16.07x is the highest of the 16 peers that report one. Its P/E Ratio of 41.29x is the highest of the 12 peers that report one.
For CVNA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 29.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 28.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How CVNA ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Carvana Co. (CVNA) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $64.74B | 1/18 |
| P/E Ratio | 41.29x | 1/12 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.07x | 1/16 |
| Book Value/Share | $3.66 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $22.77 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.84 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 52.2% | 3/13 |
| ROA | 14.4% | 2/11 |
| ROIC | 17.9% | 2/9 |
| Gross Margin | 19.4% | 7/14 |
| Operating Margin | 10.1% | 3/13 |
| Net Margin | 9.5% | 2/13 |
| EBT Margin | 10.1% | 3/17 |
| Tax Rate | -120.0% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.93x | 2/15 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.33x | 2/14 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.34x | 8/17 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.61x | 7/14 |
| Interest Coverage | 3.0x | 8/13 |
| Working Capital | $5.97B | 1/14 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.12B | 4/17 |
| Free Cash Flow | $929M | 3/14 |
| Capital Spending | -$191M | 5/14 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 54.7% | 3/13 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 51.1% | 2/11 |
| FCF/Sales | 3.7% | 6/13 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.8% | 11/13 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.72x | 6/12 |
| Receivables Turnover | 66.5x | 3/12 |
| Inventory Turnover | 6.2x | 7/13 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 8.8x | 6/15 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 5 days | 10/12 |
| Days Inventory | 59 days | 7/13 |
| Payables Period | 7 days | 8/11 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 57 days | 6/8 |
Income Statement
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $25.06B | 5/15 |
| Operating Income | $2.24B | 1/13 |
| Net Income | $2.10B | 1/13 |
| SG&A Expense | $2.62B | 4/13 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $20.20B | 5/14 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | CVNA | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 1100M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 1609.8% | 1/12 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $8.01B | 55.0% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $2.63B | 18.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $377M | 2.6% of assets |
| Inventory | $3.26B | 22.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $9.41B | 64.7% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.65B | 11.3% of assets |
CVNA quarterly financials and insider trading
Carvana Co. (CVNA) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Carvana Co. (Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations): 18 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| CVNA Carvana Co. | ▲ | $64.74B |
| CPRT Copart Inc | ▶ | $25.82B |
| CASY Caseys General Stores Inc | ▼ | $25.47B |
| PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | ▶ | $13.95B |
| MUSA Murphy Usa Inc. | ▼ | $10.07B |
| KMX Carmax Inc | ▲ | $7.57B |
| LAD Lithia Motors Inc | ▲ | $6.49B |
| AN Autonation, Inc. | ▲ | $5.35B |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises Inc \Tx\ | ▶ | $5.29B |
| OPLN Openlane, Inc. | ▼ | $4.55B |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group Inc | ▶ | $3.05B |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive Inc | ▲ | $2.89B |
| SAH Sonic Automotive Inc | ▲ | $2.01B |
| CWH Camping World Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $466M |
| KXIN Kaixin Holdings | ▼ | $71M |
| VRM Vroom, Inc. | ▲ | $46M |
| NXXT Nextnrg, Inc. | ▼ | $10M |
| CRMT Americas Carmart Inc | ▲ | $9M |
Where CVNA sits on the market map
Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock news
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Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Carvana Co. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Carvana Co. stock predictions?
For CVNA, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 29.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 28.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Carvana Co. forecasts updated?
Carvana Co. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Carvana Co.'s industry peers?
18 issuers in our coverage, CVNA included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations. The largest are: Copart Inc (CPRT), Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY), Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG), Murphy Usa Inc. (MUSA), Carmax Inc (KMX), Lithia Motors Inc (LAD).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.