Penske Automotive to be taken private in $16.3 billion deal
Penske Automotive Group Inc (NYSE:PAG) agreed to be taken private by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co in a deal valuing the ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Alpha
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
32.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$13.95B
large-cap · #4 of 18 peers
Summary
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, PAG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $13.95B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 18 Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For PAG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 32.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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PAG price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How PAG ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $13.95B | 4/18 |
| P/E Ratio | 14.95x | 6/12 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.40x | 7/16 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% | 3/8 |
| EPS | $14.21 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $88.56 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $501.32 | – |
| FCF/Share | $9.29 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 16.1% | 8/13 |
| ROA | 5.1% | 6/11 |
| ROIC | 10.5% | 8/9 |
| Gross Margin | 16.1% | 10/14 |
| Operating Margin | 3.8% | 10/13 |
| Net Margin | 2.8% | 7/13 |
| EBT Margin | 3.9% | 6/17 |
| Tax Rate | 26.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98x | 11/15 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.21x | 11/14 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.18x | 11/17 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.18x | 10/14 |
| Interest Coverage | 4.5x | 6/13 |
| Working Capital | -$164M | 12/14 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $922M | 6/17 |
| Free Cash Flow | $610M | 5/14 |
| Capital Spending | -$312M | 8/14 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -4.1% | 7/13 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -5.7% | 6/11 |
| FCF/Sales | 1.9% | 9/13 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.9% | 9/13 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.78x | 4/12 |
| Receivables Turnover | 31.0x | 9/12 |
| Inventory Turnover | 5.4x | 10/13 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 10.0x | 3/15 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 12 days | 4/12 |
| Days Inventory | 68 days | 4/13 |
| Payables Period | 12 days | 7/11 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 67 days | 4/8 |
Income Statement
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $32.92B | 2/15 |
| Operating Income | $1.24B | 5/13 |
| Net Income | $936M | 3/13 |
| SG&A Expense | $3.88B | 2/13 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $27.61B | 2/14 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | PAG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $5.55 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 39.1% | 2/7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 66M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -2.2% | 8/12 |
| EPS Growth | -1.0% | 5/11 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $6.51B | 35.2% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $70M | 0.4% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.06B | 5.7% of assets |
| Inventory | $5.11B | 27.6% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $12.65B | 68.4% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $5.76B | 31.2% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
PAG quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations): 18 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | ▶ | $13.95B |
| CVNA Carvana Co. | ▲ | $64.74B |
| CPRT Copart Inc | ▲ | $25.82B |
| CASY Caseys General Stores Inc | ▶ | $25.47B |
| MUSA Murphy Usa Inc. | ▼ | $10.07B |
| KMX Carmax Inc | ▲ | $7.57B |
| LAD Lithia Motors Inc | ▲ | $6.49B |
| AN Autonation, Inc. | ▲ | $5.35B |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises Inc \Tx\ | ▲ | $5.24B |
| OPLN Openlane, Inc. | ▼ | $4.55B |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group Inc | ▲ | $3.05B |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive Inc | ▲ | $2.89B |
| SAH Sonic Automotive Inc | ▲ | $2.01B |
| CWH Camping World Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $466M |
| KXIN Kaixin Holdings | ▼ | $71M |
| VRM Vroom, Inc. | ▲ | $46M |
| CRMT Americas Carmart Inc | ▶ | $11M |
| NXXT Nextnrg, Inc. | ▼ | $10M |
Where PAG sits on the market map
Trade & Services · Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations
News
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock news
Penske Automotive Group Announces Agreement to be Taken Private by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co.
PRNewswire/ -- (NYSE: PAG) (the "Company" or "PAG"), a diversified international transportation services company and one of ...
Penske Automotive, OPKO Health, Ericsson and other big stocks moving higher on Thursday
U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Dow Jones index gaining around 200 points on Thursday. Shares of Penske Automotive Group, ...
FAQ
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, PAG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Penske Automotive Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For PAG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 32.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 27.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Penske Automotive Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
18 issuers in our coverage, PAG included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations. The largest are: Carvana Co. (CVNA), Copart Inc (CPRT), Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY), Murphy Usa Inc. (MUSA), Carmax Inc (KMX), Lithia Motors Inc (LAD).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.