Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Dollar Tree, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Dollar Tree, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $23.30B. It ranks number 5 by market capitalization among the 10 Retail-Variety Stores issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its D/E Ratio of 3.10x is the highest of the 9 peers that report one.
For DLTR, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 32.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, DLTR included.
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How DLTR ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Retail-Variety Stores peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $23.30B | 5/10 |
| P/E Ratio | 19.40x | 7/9 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.80x | 3/9 |
| EPS | $6.40 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $18.26 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $106.96 | – |
| FCF/Share | $7.97 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 20.5% | 2/8 |
| Gross Margin | 38.7% | 2/9 |
| Operating Margin | 10.6% | 3/9 |
| EBT Margin | 10.3% | 3/9 |
| Tax Rate | 24.6% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.13x | 5/9 |
| D/E Ratio | 3.10x | 1/9 |
| Financial Leverage | 4.10x | 1/8 |
| Interest Coverage | 13.9x | 6/8 |
| Working Capital | $442M | 5/9 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.63B | 5/9 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.50B | 5/9 |
| Capital Spending | -$1.14B | 5/9 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 0.2% | 8/9 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 9.0% | 3/9 |
| FCF/Sales | 7.5% | 2/9 |
| CapEx/Sales | 5.7% | 2/9 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.43x | 5/8 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 3.9x | 8/9 |
| Payables Period | 48 days | 4/9 |
Income Statement
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $20.07B | 6/9 |
| Operating Income | $2.20B | 5/9 |
| SG&A Expense | $5.66B | 5/8 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $12.29B | 6/9 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | DLTR | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 188M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $3.74B | 26.7% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.06B | 7.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $10.60B | 75.6% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $1.68B | 12.0% of assets |
DLTR quarterly financials and insider trading
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Dollar Tree, Inc. (Retail-Variety Stores): 10 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | ▼ | $23.30B |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | ▼ | $942.61B |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corp /New | ▼ | $439.04B |
| TGT Target Corp | ▼ | $70.08B |
| DG Dollar General Corp | ▼ | $29.64B |
| BJ Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $13.00B |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc | ▶ | $12.26B |
| OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $5.54B |
| PSMT Pricesmart Inc | ▼ | $5.24B |
| MNSO Miniso Group Holding Ltd | ▼ | $3.10B |
Where DLTR sits on the market map
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock news
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Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Dollar Tree, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Dollar Tree, Inc. stock predictions?
For DLTR, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 32.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Dollar Tree, Inc. forecasts updated?
Dollar Tree, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Dollar Tree, Inc.'s industry peers?
10 issuers in our coverage, DLTR included, share the SEC industry code Retail-Variety Stores. The largest are: Walmart Inc. (WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp /New (COST), Target Corp (TGT), Dollar General Corp (DG), Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ), Five Below, Inc (FIVE).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.