Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Firefly Aerospace Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.80B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 8 Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For FLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -58.0%, measured on 192 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 8.0%, measured on 235 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How FLY ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.80B | 4/8 |
| P/E Ratio | 44.08x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 2.29x | 4/7 |
| EPS | $0.38 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $7.31 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $2.05 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-1.95 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -29.5% | 5/5 |
| Gross Margin | 19.8% | 5/7 |
| Operating Margin | -115.8% | 5/7 |
| EBT Margin | -134.3% | 5/7 |
| Tax Rate | 8.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.73x | 6/8 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.34x | 4/7 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.34x | 3/6 |
| Interest Coverage | -17.2x | 5/7 |
| Working Capital | $506M | 5/8 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$264M | 7/7 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$326M | 4/5 |
| Capital Spending | -$62M | 1/5 |
| FCF/Sales | -95.2% | 4/5 |
| CapEx/Sales | 18.1% | 3/5 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.21x | 3/5 |
| Receivables Turnover | 5.9x | 5/6 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.8x | 5/6 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 62 days | 2/6 |
| Payables Period | 77 days | 2/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $343M | 4/6 |
| Operating Income | -$397M | 7/7 |
| R&D Expense | $293M | 2/5 |
| SG&A Expense | $172M | 3/5 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $275M | 4/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 167M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $799M | 48.8% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $460M | 28.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $58M | 3.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $416M | 25.4% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $235M | 14.4% of assets |
FLY quarterly financials and insider trading
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Firefly Aerospace Inc. (Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts): 8 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. | ▲ | $2.80B |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corp | ▼ | $127.42B |
| RKLB Rocket Lab Corp | ▲ | $30.42B |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | ▶ | $7.59B |
| VOYG Voyager Technologies, Inc./Tx | ▲ | $1.55B |
| YSS York Space Systems Inc. | ▶ | $766M |
| MNTS Momentus Inc. | ▶ | $57M |
| HLEO Helio Corp /Fl/ | ▶ | $24M |
Where FLY sits on the market map
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock news
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Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Firefly Aerospace Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Firefly Aerospace Inc. stock predictions?
For FLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -58.0%, measured on 192 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 8.0%, measured on 235 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Firefly Aerospace Inc. forecasts updated?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s industry peers?
8 issuers in our coverage, FLY included, share the SEC industry code Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts. The largest are: Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), Voyager Technologies, Inc./Tx (VOYG), York Space Systems Inc. (YSS), Momentus Inc. (MNTS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.