Firefly Aerospace Q2 Earnings Call Focuses on Backlog and Alpha Ramp
Detailed price information for Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY-Q) from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-3.0%
Spearman, 195 dates
Market Cap
$3.48B
mid-cap · #4 of 8 peers
Summary
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Firefly Aerospace Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.48B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 8 Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For FLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -3.0%, measured on 195 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 238 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
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Price
FLY price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How FLY ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.48B | 4/8 |
| P/E Ratio | 54.63x | – |
| P/B Ratio | 2.84x | 4/7 |
| EPS | $0.38 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $7.31 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $2.05 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-1.95 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -29.5% | 5/5 |
| Gross Margin | 19.8% | 5/7 |
| Operating Margin | -115.8% | 5/7 |
| EBT Margin | -134.3% | 5/7 |
| Tax Rate | 8.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.73x | 6/8 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.34x | 4/7 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.34x | 3/6 |
| Interest Coverage | -17.2x | 5/7 |
| Working Capital | $506M | 5/8 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$264M | 7/7 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$326M | 4/5 |
| Capital Spending | -$62M | 1/5 |
| FCF/Sales | -95.2% | 4/5 |
| CapEx/Sales | 18.1% | 3/5 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.21x | 3/5 |
| Receivables Turnover | 5.9x | 6/6 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.8x | 5/6 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 62 days | 1/6 |
| Payables Period | 77 days | 2/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $343M | 4/6 |
| Operating Income | -$397M | 7/7 |
| R&D Expense | $293M | 2/5 |
| SG&A Expense | $172M | 4/5 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $275M | 4/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | FLY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 167M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $799M | 48.8% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $460M | 28.1% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $58M | 3.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $416M | 25.4% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $235M | 14.4% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
FLY quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Firefly Aerospace Inc. (Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts): 8 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. | $3.48B | |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corp | $131.00B | |
| RKLB Rocket Lab Corp | $31.75B | |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $6.59B | |
| VOYG Voyager Technologies, Inc./Tx | $1.24B | |
| YSS York Space Systems Inc. | $860M | |
| MNTS Momentus Inc. | $45M | |
| HLEO Helio Corp /Fl/ | $21M |
Where FLY sits on the market map
Manufacturing · Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts
News
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock news
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock (FLY) Earnings
On Aug 11, 2026, FLY reported earnings of -0.42 USD per share (EPS) for Q2 26, beating the estimate of -0.52 USD, resulting in a 20.29% surprise. Revenue reached 117.68 million, compared to an expected 89.
Firefly Aerospace: Q2 Earnings Snapshot
LEANDER, Texas (AP) — LEANDER, Texas (AP) — Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) on Tuesday reported a loss of $92.3 million in its second quarter. On a per-share basis, the Leander, Texas-based company said it had a loss of 57 cents. Losses, adjusted for non ...
FAQ
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Firefly Aerospace Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Firefly Aerospace Inc. stock predictions?
For FLY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -3.0%, measured on 195 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 238 forecast dates between 2025-09-26 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Firefly Aerospace Inc. forecasts updated?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s industry peers?
8 issuers in our coverage, FLY included, share the SEC industry code Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts. The largest are: Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), Voyager Technologies, Inc./Tx (VOYG), York Space Systems Inc. (YSS), Momentus Inc. (MNTS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.