Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, MBIN is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Merchants Bancorp is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.24B. It ranks number 47 by market capitalization among the 60 State Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MBIN, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 35.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 26.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, MBIN included.
Follow MBIN freeMBIN price chart and AI forecast
How MBIN ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the State Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.24B | 47/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 8.25x | 57/59 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94x | 55/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.69% | 26/51 |
| EPS | $5.91 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $52.11 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $13.77 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-16.66 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 11.2% | 22/52 |
| ROA | 1.3% | 22/49 |
| Net Margin | 42.5% | 6/53 |
| EBT Margin | 51.0% | 11/58 |
| Tax Rate | 16.7% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 7.87x | 22/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 8.87x | 19/54 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$752M | 57/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$765M | 44/45 |
| Capital Spending | -$13M | 15/45 |
| FCF/Sales | -121.0% | 44/44 |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.1% | 22/44 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.03x | 41/52 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 8.5x | 16/55 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $632M | 44/57 |
| Net Income | $269M | 34/53 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MBIN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.31 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 22.2% | 44/51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 46M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 6.1% | 41/52 |
| EPS Growth | 63.7% | 10/57 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $315M | 1.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $18.84B | 88.8% of assets |
MBIN quarterly financials and insider trading
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Merchants Bancorp (State Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | ▶ | $2.24B |
| BNS Bank Of Nova Scotia | ▼ | $113.24B |
| DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft | ▼ | $61.98B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | ▶ | $45.68B |
| STT State Street Corp | ▶ | $45.52B |
| BBD Bank Bradesco | ▶ | $41.97B |
| MTB M&T Bank Corp | ▶ | $31.09B |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corp | ▲ | $30.29B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri | ▲ | $26.69B |
| FCNCA First Citizens Bancshares Inc /De/ | ▶ | $23.98B |
| EWBC East West Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $17.38B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | ▶ | $11.46B |
| BPOP Popular, Inc. | ▼ | $10.13B |
| SSB Southstate Bank Corp | ▼ | $9.90B |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corp | ▶ | $9.72B |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares Inc | ▶ | $8.15B |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | ▶ | $8.13B |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | ▶ | $8.05B |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | ▼ | $7.99B |
| UBSI United Bankshares Inc/Wv | ▶ | $6.36B |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corp | ▶ | $5.86B |
| HOMB Home Bancshares Inc | ▶ | $5.84B |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $5.71B |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | ▶ | $5.47B |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp | ▼ | $5.44B |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | ▶ | $5.35B |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares Inc | ▶ | $4.37B |
| SFBS Servisfirst Bancshares, Inc. | ▲ | $4.30B |
| IBOC International Bancshares Corp | ▶ | $4.19B |
| FBP First Bancorp /Pr/ | ▶ | $4.18B |
| UCB United Community Banks Inc | ▶ | $4.11B |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | ▶ | $4.00B |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc/Tx | ▶ | $3.96B |
| CVBF Cvb Financial Corp | ▶ | $3.85B |
| INDB Independent Bank Corp | ▶ | $3.78B |
| RNST Renasant Corp | ▶ | $3.65B |
| FIBK First Interstate Bancsystem Inc | ▶ | $3.32B |
| MCHB Mechanics Bancorp | ▶ | $3.18B |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida | ▶ | $3.15B |
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | ▶ | $3.04B |
| BOH Bank Of Hawaii Corp | ▶ | $2.65B |
| FBK Fb Financial Corp | ▶ | $2.58B |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $2.53B |
| FBNC First Bancorp /Nc/ | ▶ | $2.50B |
| BUSE First Busey Corp /Nv/ | ▶ | $2.43B |
| SYBT Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $2.38B |
| BANR Banner Corp | ▶ | $2.30B |
| OFG Ofg Bancorp | ▼ | $2.22B |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | ▶ | $2.17B |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $2.11B |
| SRCE 1st Source Corp | ▼ | $2.07B |
| GABC German American Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $1.88B |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc /Ky/ | ▶ | $1.83B |
| STBA S&T Bancorp Inc | ▶ | $1.72B |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $1.68B |
| TCBK Trico Bancshares / | ▶ | $1.66B |
| CNOB Connectone Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $1.65B |
| QCRH Qcr Holdings Inc | ▶ | $1.62B |
| LOB Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | ▲ | $1.62B |
| OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $1.59B |
Where MBIN sits on the market map
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock news
Loading...
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, MBIN is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Merchants Bancorp stock predictions?
For MBIN, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 35.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 26.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Merchants Bancorp forecasts updated?
Merchants Bancorp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Merchants Bancorp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, MBIN included, share the SEC industry code State Commercial Banks. The largest are: Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS), Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street Corp (STT), Bank Bradesco (BBD), M&T Bank Corp (MTB).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.