Match Group earnings miss estimates as revenue and paying users fall
Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH), the company behind Tinder and Hinge, missed third-quarter earnings estimates as revenue fell 3 ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
19.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$8.96B
mid-cap · #11 of 60 peers
Summary
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Match Group, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Match Group, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $8.96B. It ranks number 11 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MTCH, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 19.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 30.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, MTCH included.
Price
MTCH price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How MTCH ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-09-30
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $8.96B | 11/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.24x | 15/19 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.03% | 1/6 |
| EPS | $3.19 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $15.19 | – |
| FCF/Share | $4.97 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 17.2% | 5/32 |
| ROIC | 28.9% | 3/40 |
| Gross Margin | 75.8% | 15/45 |
| Operating Margin | 29.7% | 4/45 |
| Net Margin | 20.7% | 6/33 |
| EBT Margin | 25.7% | 7/47 |
| Tax Rate | 19.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.79x | 22/52 |
| Interest Coverage | 2.3x | 20/49 |
| Working Capital | $488M | 12/51 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.21B | 8/49 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.14B | 7/36 |
| Capital Spending | -$69M | 25/36 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 19.4% | 14/30 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 18.4% | 10/24 |
| FCF/Sales | 32.7% | 3/37 |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.0% | 19/37 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.83x | 14/37 |
| Receivables Turnover | 12.5x | 8/38 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 22.2x | 17/38 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 29 days | 31/38 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $3.49B | 9/41 |
| Operating Income | $1.04B | 5/47 |
| Net Income | $721M | 5/33 |
| R&D Expense | $461M | 9/36 |
| SG&A Expense | $1.49B | 8/40 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $844M | 11/44 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.79 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 24.8% | 2/5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 230M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 28.3% | 8/13 |
| EPS Growth | 49.8% | 7/17 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $1.10B | 26.3% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $726M | 17.3% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $279M | 6.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $4.33B |
Quarterly Financial Reports
MTCH quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Match Group, Inc. (Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH Match Group, Inc. | $8.96B | |
| GOOG Alphabet Inc. | $3.49T | |
| SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp | $1.82T | |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | $1.56T | |
| APP Applovin Corp | $131.17B | |
| NBIS Nebius Group N.V. | $32.76B | |
| ZM Zoom Communications, Inc. | $25.92B | |
| FLUT Flutter Entertainment Plc | $14.18B | |
| TEM Tempus Ai, Inc. | $13.87B | |
| FDS Factset Research Systems Inc | $11.56B | |
| PINS Pinterest, Inc. | $11.37B | |
| DOCN Digitalocean Holdings, Inc. | $8.52B | |
| SNAP Snap Inc | $8.39B | |
| BZ Kanzhun Ltd | $7.92B | |
| TTD Trade Desk, Inc. | $6.08B | |
| GDS Gds Holdings Ltd | $4.43B | |
| SRAD Sportradar Group Ag | $4.24B | |
| MGNI Magnite, Inc. | $3.93B | |
| WIX Wix.Com Ltd. | $3.30B | |
| PPLI People Inc | $3.13B | |
| CSQR Csquare, Inc. | $2.39B | |
| GRND Grindr Inc. | $2.35B | |
| DV Doubleverify Holdings, Inc. | $2.12B | |
| RUM Rum Group Inc. | $1.97B | |
| WB Weibo Corp | $1.59B | |
| DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. | $1.11B | |
| EVER Everquote, Inc. | $1.02B | |
| SIFY Sify Technologies Ltd | $941M | |
| BMBL Bumble Inc. | $924M | |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | $865M | |
| DSP Viant Technology Inc. | $854M | |
| VNET Vnet Group, Inc. | $849M | |
| HSTM Healthstream Inc | $845M | |
| PUBM Pubmatic, Inc. | $811M | |
| CEVA Ceva Inc | $763M | |
| NXDR Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. | $758M | |
| SMWB Similarweb Ltd. | $731M | |
| SABR Sabre Corp | $680M | |
| RXT Rackspace Technology, Inc. | $645M | |
| RZLV Rezolve Ai Plc | $550M | |
| TBLA Taboola.Com Ltd. | $540M | |
| NEXN Nexxen International Ltd. | $498M | |
| ZIP Ziprecruiter, Inc. | $306M | |
| BLND Blend Labs, Inc. | $233M | |
| SANG Sangoma Technologies Corp | $149M | |
| HCAT Health Catalyst, Inc. | $110M | |
| PODC Podcastone, Inc. | $54M | |
| SOGP Sound Group Inc. | $43M | |
| RMXI Rmx Industries, Inc. | $40M | |
| JG Aurora Mobile Ltd | $30M | |
| HOLO Microcloud Hologram Inc. | $25M | |
| GOAI Eva Live Inc | $24M | |
| IPM Intelligent Protection Management Corp. | $22M | |
| TEAD Teads Holding Co. | $17M | |
| TRSO Transuite.Org Inc. | $15M | |
| SST System1, Inc. | $15M | |
| CDLX Cardlytics, Inc. | $13M | |
| GITS Global Interactive Technologies, Inc. | $6M | |
| TWAV Taoweave, Inc. | $5M | |
| YYAI Airwa Inc. | $4M |
Where MTCH sits on the market map
Technology · Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.
News
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock news
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)
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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Presents at Citi's 2026 Global TMT Conference Transcript
Excellent. Let's get started. I'm Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis. I'm on the Internet team here at Citi. Joining us is Steven Bailey, Chief Financial Officer of Match Group. Steven, thank you so much for ...
FAQ
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Match Group, Inc. every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Match Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For MTCH, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 19.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 30.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Match Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
Match Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Match Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, MTCH included, share the SEC industry code Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.. The largest are: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Applovin Corp (APP), Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.