Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, MTCH is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Match Group, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $9.86B. It ranks number 13 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MTCH, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 19.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 25.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How MTCH ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $9.86B | 13/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 16.58x | 15/22 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.85% | 1/6 |
| EPS | $2.59 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $15.29 | – |
| FCF/Share | $4.97 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 17.6% | 6/38 |
| ROIC | 28.4% | 4/41 |
| Gross Margin | 74.8% | 16/45 |
| Operating Margin | 28.1% | 6/45 |
| Net Margin | 20.2% | 9/39 |
| EBT Margin | 24.6% | 8/47 |
| Tax Rate | 18.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.72x | 21/53 |
| Interest Coverage | 2.3x | 20/49 |
| Working Capital | $400M | 12/52 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.21B | 8/49 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.14B | 7/37 |
| Capital Spending | -$66M | 27/37 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 26.2% | 13/31 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 25.8% | 7/25 |
| FCF/Sales | 32.5% | 3/38 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.9% | 19/38 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.87x | 11/38 |
| Receivables Turnover | 12.6x | 7/40 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 24.0x | 18/40 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 29 days | 34/40 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $3.51B | 9/42 |
| Operating Income | $988M | 5/47 |
| Net Income | $708M | 5/38 |
| R&D Expense | $446M | 9/37 |
| SG&A Expense | $1.54B | 8/41 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $884M | 10/44 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MTCH | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.79 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 30.5% | 1/5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 230M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 31.6% | 7/12 |
| EPS Growth | 27.6% | 9/18 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $952M | 23.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $581M | 14.4% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $279M | 6.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $4.27B |
MTCH quarterly financials and insider trading
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Match Group, Inc. (Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH Match Group, Inc. | ▶ | $9.86B |
| GOOG Alphabet Inc. | ▶ | $4.12T |
| SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp | ▶ | $1.92T |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | ▶ | $1.81T |
| APP Applovin Corp | ▼ | $89.06B |
| NBIS Nebius Group N.V. | ▲ | $41.87B |
| ZM Zoom Communications, Inc. | ▶ | $27.48B |
| FLUT Flutter Entertainment Plc | ▲ | $13.12B |
| PINS Pinterest, Inc. | ▲ | $12.41B |
| TEM Tempus Ai, Inc. | ▲ | $11.68B |
| DOCN Digitalocean Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $11.60B |
| FDS Factset Research Systems Inc | ▶ | $10.73B |
| SNAP Snap Inc | ▲ | $10.37B |
| BZ Kanzhun Ltd | ▶ | $7.51B |
| TTD Trade Desk, Inc. | ▲ | $5.75B |
| GDS Gds Holdings Ltd | ▲ | $4.57B |
| SRAD Sportradar Group Ag | ▶ | $3.56B |
| MGNI Magnite, Inc. | ▶ | $3.35B |
| WIX Wix.Com Ltd. | ▲ | $3.23B |
| PPLI People Inc | ▼ | $2.89B |
| CSQR Csquare, Inc. | ▶ | $2.68B |
| GRND Grindr Inc. | ▲ | $2.45B |
| RUM Rum Group Inc. | ▲ | $2.28B |
| DV Doubleverify Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $2.09B |
| DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. | ▼ | $1.94B |
| WB Weibo Corp | ▼ | $1.59B |
| TRIP Tripadvisor, Inc. | ▶ | $1.09B |
| VNET Vnet Group, Inc. | ▲ | $1.06B |
| HSTM Healthstream Inc | ▶ | $969M |
| NXDR Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $952M |
| TBLA Taboola.Com Ltd. | ▲ | $929M |
| BMBL Bumble Inc. | ▲ | $910M |
| SIFY Sify Technologies Ltd | ▼ | $828M |
| DSP Viant Technology Inc. | ▲ | $789M |
| CEVA Ceva Inc | ▲ | $774M |
| EVER Everquote, Inc. | ▲ | $768M |
| PUBM Pubmatic, Inc. | ▲ | $758M |
| RZLV Rezolve Ai Plc | ▼ | $730M |
| SMWB Similarweb Ltd. | ▲ | $726M |
| RXT Rackspace Technology, Inc. | ▲ | $720M |
| SABR Sabre Corp | ▲ | $678M |
| NEXN Nexxen International Ltd. | ▲ | $499M |
| ZIP Ziprecruiter, Inc. | ▲ | $363M |
| BLND Blend Labs, Inc. | ▲ | $213M |
| SANG Sangoma Technologies Corp | ▲ | $159M |
| HCAT Health Catalyst, Inc. | ▶ | $130M |
| GOAI Eva Live Inc | ▲ | $61M |
| JG Aurora Mobile Ltd | ▲ | $53M |
| PODC Podcastone, Inc. | ▲ | $53M |
| SOGP Sound Group Inc. | ▲ | $44M |
| RMXI Rmx Industries, Inc. | ▼ | $42M |
| TEAD Teads Holding Co. | ▲ | $39M |
| HOLO Microcloud Hologram Inc. | ▼ | $27M |
| IPM Intelligent Protection Management Corp. | ▶ | $23M |
| SST System1, Inc. | ▼ | $18M |
| TRSO Transuite.Org Inc. | ▼ | $14M |
| CDLX Cardlytics, Inc. | ▲ | $12M |
| GITS Global Interactive Technologies, Inc. | ▶ | $6M |
| TWAV Taoweave, Inc. | ▲ | $5M |
| CNET Zw Data Action Technologies Inc. | ▲ | $5M |
Where MTCH sits on the market map
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock news
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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, MTCH is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Match Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For MTCH, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 19.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 25.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Match Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
Match Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Match Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, MTCH included, share the SEC industry code Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.. The largest are: Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Applovin Corp (APP), Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.