Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, SPCE is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $368M. It ranks number 14 by market capitalization among the 17 Transportation Services issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Net Margin of -23867.4% is the lowest of the 8 peers that report one.
For SPCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How SPCE ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Transportation Services peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $368M | 14/17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93x | 10/11 |
| EPS | $-2.09 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $2.61 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $0.01 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-2.55 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -62.5% | 7/7 |
| ROA | -30.4% | 8/9 |
| ROIC | -41.3% | 9/10 |
| Gross Margin | -9106.1% | 5/5 |
| Operating Margin | -24804.5% | 10/10 |
| Net Margin | -23867.4% | 8/8 |
| EBT Margin | -23857.7% | 11/11 |
| Tax Rate | -0.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62x | 4/16 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.06x | 10/14 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.06x | 10/14 |
| Interest Coverage | -64.3x | 11/11 |
| Working Capital | $120M | 9/16 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$212M | 12/12 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$386M | 9/9 |
| Capital Spending | -$174M | 5/9 |
| FCF/Sales | -37231.3% | 9/9 |
| CapEx/Sales | 16764.0% | 1/9 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.00x | 10/10 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 0.0x | 11/11 |
| Payables Period | 79 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1M | 11/11 |
| Operating Income | -$257M | 11/11 |
| Net Income | -$248M | 9/9 |
| R&D Expense | $38M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $109M | 8/10 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $96M | 4/5 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SPCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 152M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $313M | 38.3% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $187M | 23.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $420M | 51.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $172M | 21.0% of assets |
SPCE quarterly financials and insider trading
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (Transportation Services): 17 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc | ▶ | $368M |
| BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. | ▲ | $122.81B |
| EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. | ▲ | $34.68B |
| XPO Xpo, Inc. | ▼ | $22.11B |
| GATX Gatx Corp | ▲ | $5.84B |
| GXO Gxo Logistics, Inc. | ▼ | $5.41B |
| HAFN Hafnia Ltd | ▲ | $4.98B |
| GBTG Global Business Travel Group, Inc. | ▼ | $4.96B |
| RXO Rxo, Inc. | ▶ | $4.72B |
| MMYT Makemytrip Ltd | ▶ | $4.57B |
| BWLP Bw Lpg Ltd | ▶ | $3.73B |
| LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $2.27B |
| GMRS Gmr Solutions Inc. | ▶ | $776M |
| VRRM Verra Mobility Corp | ▼ | $447M |
| PAL Proficient Auto Logistics, Inc | ▶ | $89M |
| NTRP Nexttrip, Inc. | ▼ | $25M |
| TLSS Transportation & Logistics Systems, Inc. | ▼ | $240K |
Where SPCE sits on the market map
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) stock news
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Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, SPCE is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc stock predictions?
For SPCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -13.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 12.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc forecasts updated?
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc's industry peers?
17 issuers in our coverage, SPCE included, share the SEC industry code Transportation Services. The largest are: Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE), Xpo, Inc. (XPO), Gatx Corp (GATX), Gxo Logistics, Inc. (GXO), Hafnia Ltd (HAFN).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.