1st Source Corp (SRCE) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · Nasdaq
1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks 1st Source Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
1st Source Corp is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.07B. It ranks number 51 by market capitalization among the 60 State Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SRCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -27.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, SRCE included.
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How SRCE ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
1st Source Corp (SRCE) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the State Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.07B | 51/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.34x | 26/59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.58x | 13/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% | 39/51 |
| EPS | $6.96 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $54.41 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $18.37 | – |
| FCF/Share | $8.64 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 13.0% | 11/52 |
| ROA | 1.9% | 4/49 |
| Net Margin | 38.6% | 10/53 |
| EBT Margin | 50.1% | 12/58 |
| Tax Rate | 22.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 6.04x | 50/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 7.07x | 45/54 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $216M | 46/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | $208M | 31/45 |
| Capital Spending | -$8M | 11/45 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -1.0% | 43/54 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 1.0% | 31/40 |
| FCF/Sales | 47.0% | 8/44 |
| CapEx/Sales | 1.9% | 27/44 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.05x | 5/52 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 7.0x | 22/55 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $442M | 49/57 |
| Net Income | $171M | 40/53 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SRCE | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.68 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 24.1% | 38/51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 21.1% | 28/52 |
| EPS Growth | 21.9% | 26/57 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $127M | 1.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $7.91B | 85.8% of assets |
SRCE quarterly financials and insider trading
1st Source Corp (SRCE) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as 1st Source Corp (State Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SRCE 1st Source Corp | ▼ | $2.07B |
| BNS Bank Of Nova Scotia | ▼ | $113.24B |
| DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft | ▼ | $61.98B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | ▶ | $45.68B |
| STT State Street Corp | ▶ | $45.52B |
| BBD Bank Bradesco | ▶ | $41.97B |
| MTB M&T Bank Corp | ▶ | $31.09B |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corp | ▲ | $30.29B |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri | ▲ | $26.69B |
| FCNCA First Citizens Bancshares Inc /De/ | ▶ | $23.98B |
| EWBC East West Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $17.38B |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | ▶ | $11.46B |
| BPOP Popular, Inc. | ▼ | $10.13B |
| SSB Southstate Bank Corp | ▼ | $9.90B |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corp | ▶ | $9.72B |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares Inc | ▼ | $8.15B |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | ▶ | $8.13B |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | ▶ | $8.05B |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | ▼ | $7.99B |
| UBSI United Bankshares Inc/Wv | ▼ | $6.36B |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corp | ▶ | $5.86B |
| HOMB Home Bancshares Inc | ▼ | $5.84B |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $5.71B |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | ▼ | $5.47B |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp | ▼ | $5.44B |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | ▼ | $5.35B |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares Inc | ▶ | $4.37B |
| SFBS Servisfirst Bancshares, Inc. | ▶ | $4.30B |
| IBOC International Bancshares Corp | ▼ | $4.19B |
| FBP First Bancorp /Pr/ | ▼ | $4.18B |
| UCB United Community Banks Inc | ▼ | $4.11B |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | ▶ | $4.00B |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc/Tx | ▶ | $3.96B |
| CVBF Cvb Financial Corp | ▶ | $3.85B |
| INDB Independent Bank Corp | ▶ | $3.78B |
| RNST Renasant Corp | ▼ | $3.65B |
| FIBK First Interstate Bancsystem Inc | ▶ | $3.32B |
| MCHB Mechanics Bancorp | ▶ | $3.18B |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida | ▶ | $3.15B |
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | ▼ | $3.04B |
| BOH Bank Of Hawaii Corp | ▼ | $2.65B |
| FBK Fb Financial Corp | ▶ | $2.58B |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $2.53B |
| FBNC First Bancorp /Nc/ | ▶ | $2.50B |
| BUSE First Busey Corp /Nv/ | ▶ | $2.43B |
| SYBT Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $2.38B |
| BANR Banner Corp | ▼ | $2.30B |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | ▶ | $2.24B |
| OFG Ofg Bancorp | ▼ | $2.22B |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | ▶ | $2.17B |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $2.11B |
| GABC German American Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $1.88B |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc /Ky/ | ▶ | $1.83B |
| STBA S&T Bancorp Inc | ▼ | $1.72B |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $1.68B |
| TCBK Trico Bancshares / | ▶ | $1.66B |
| CNOB Connectone Bancorp, Inc. | ▶ | $1.65B |
| QCRH Qcr Holdings Inc | ▼ | $1.62B |
| LOB Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | ▲ | $1.62B |
| OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | ▼ | $1.59B |
Where SRCE sits on the market map
1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock news
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1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock forecast FAQ
What is the 1st Source Corp (SRCE) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks 1st Source Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are 1st Source Corp stock predictions?
For SRCE, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -27.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are 1st Source Corp forecasts updated?
1st Source Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are 1st Source Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, SRCE included, share the SEC industry code State Commercial Banks. The largest are: Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS), Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street Corp (STT), Bank Bradesco (BBD), M&T Bank Corp (MTB).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.