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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
Alpha
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
33.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$7.86B
mid-cap · #6 of 13 peers
Summary
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, AAL is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
American Airlines Group Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $7.86B. It ranks number 6 by market capitalization among the 13 Air Transportation, Scheduled issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For AAL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 33.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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AAL price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How AAL ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Air Transportation, Scheduled peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $7.86B | 6/13 |
| EPS | $-0.63 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $88.13 | – |
| FCF/Share | $0.43 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.5% | 4/7 |
| ROIC | 2.7% | 5/7 |
| Operating Margin | 1.7% | 7/9 |
| Net Margin | -0.6% | 4/6 |
| EBT Margin | -0.6% | 7/9 |
| Tax Rate | 11.7% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53x | 8/11 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.4x | 4/8 |
| Working Capital | -$12.48B | 10/11 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.37B | 4/9 |
| Free Cash Flow | $285M | 3/7 |
| Capital Spending | -$4.09B | 5/7 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 6.8% | 3/6 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -81.8% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 0.5% | 4/7 |
| CapEx/Sales | 7.0% | 6/7 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.91x | 2/7 |
| Receivables Turnover | 30.8x | 3/7 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.8x | 3/9 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 12 days | 5/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $58.34B | 3/9 |
| Operating Income | $1.01B | 5/9 |
| Net Income | -$326M | 6/7 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AAL | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 662M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -157.5% | 4/5 |
| EPS Growth | -155.3% | 4/6 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $14.28B | 22.2% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.15B | 1.8% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $1.89B | 2.9% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $68.20B | |
| Short-term Debt | $23.12B | 36.0% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
AAL quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Air Transportation, Scheduled
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as American Airlines Group Inc. (Air Transportation, Scheduled): 13 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | ▶ | $7.86B |
| DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | ▶ | $49.57B |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $32.88B |
| RYAAY Ryanair Holdings Plc | ▼ | $27.19B |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co | ▼ | $19.97B |
| LTM Latam Airlines Group S.A. | ▼ | $13.92B |
| CPA Copa Holdings, S.A. | ▼ | $5.47B |
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | ▲ | $3.92B |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Co | ▲ | $1.83B |
| AZUL Azul Sa | ▼ | $1.17B |
| ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $1.15B |
| RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $763M |
| FJET Starfighters Space, Inc. | ▲ | $61M |
Where AAL sits on the market map
Energy & Transportation · Air Transportation, Scheduled
News
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock news
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Management Presents at Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference (Transcript)
Okay. Everybody, good morning. Here I am again. Hunter Keay, Wolfe Research. I’m supposed to say the name. All right, I’m Hunter Keay. This research is Wolfe Research. It’s 8 o’clock Eastern Time, May ...
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FAQ
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock forecast FAQ
What is the American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, AAL is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are American Airlines Group Inc. stock predictions?
For AAL, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 33.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -5.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are American Airlines Group Inc. forecasts updated?
American Airlines Group Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are American Airlines Group Inc.'s industry peers?
13 issuers in our coverage, AAL included, share the SEC industry code Air Transportation, Scheduled. The largest are: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL), Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYAAY), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), Latam Airlines Group S.A. (LTM), Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.