Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, AFRM is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $24.97B. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 11 Personal Credit Institutions issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For AFRM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 37.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How AFRM ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Personal Credit Institutions peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $24.97B | 1/11 |
| P/E Ratio | 13.38x | 3/11 |
| EPS | $5.53 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $12.63 | – |
| FCF/Share | $2.94 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Margin | 51.1% | – |
| EBT Margin | 60.4% | 1/11 |
| Tax Rate | -291.7% | – |
The effective tax rate is outside the normal band, which points to a large non-recurring tax item in the trailing twelve months; headline net income, net margin and P/E are affected by it.
Financial Health
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Interest Coverage | 1.2x | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.23B | 4/11 |
| Free Cash Flow | $993M | 3/7 |
| Capital Spending | -$238M | 7/7 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 55.0% | 2/9 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 65.0% | 1/6 |
| FCF/Sales | 23.3% | 6/7 |
| CapEx/Sales | 5.6% | 2/7 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receivables Turnover | 15.0x | – |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 6.2x | 9/10 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 24 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $4.26B | 2/11 |
| Operating Income | $417M | – |
| SG&A Expense | $1.53B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AFRM | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 337M | – |
| EPS Growth | 3586.7% | 1/11 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $1.63B | |
| Accounts Receivable | $284M | |
| Total Liabilities | $1.73B |
AFRM quarterly financials and insider trading
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Affirm Holdings, Inc. (Personal Credit Institutions): 11 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $24.97B |
| OMF Onemain Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $6.58B |
| CACC Credit Acceptance Corp | ▲ | $5.62B |
| NNI Nelnet Inc | ▶ | $4.56B |
| ENVA Enova International, Inc. | ▲ | $4.43B |
| SLM Slm Corp | ▲ | $4.18B |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $3.94B |
| HAPN Happen, Inc. | ▶ | $1.67B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corp | ▶ | $1.40B |
| WRLD World Acceptance Corp | ▶ | $804M |
| RM Regional Management Corp. | ▶ | $318M |
Where AFRM sits on the market map
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock news
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Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, AFRM is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Affirm Holdings, Inc. stock predictions?
For AFRM, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 37.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Affirm Holdings, Inc. forecasts updated?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s industry peers?
11 issuers in our coverage, AFRM included, share the SEC industry code Personal Credit Institutions. The largest are: Onemain Holdings, Inc. (OMF), Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC), Nelnet Inc (NNI), Enova International, Inc. (ENVA), Slm Corp (SLM), Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.