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Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
▼ Bearish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Bottom 35%
of 5171 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
17.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$6.19B
mid-cap · #3 of 17 peers
Summary
Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Aerovironment Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Aerovironment Inc is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $6.19B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 17 Aircraft issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its ROE of -4.6% is the highest of the 8 peers that report one.
For AVAV, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 11.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, AVAV included.
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AVAV price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How AVAV ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-08-01
Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Aircraft peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $6.19B | 3/17 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41x | 8/10 |
| EPS | $-4.06 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $86.50 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $39.41 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-0.49 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -4.6% | 1/8 |
| ROA | -3.5% | 2/8 |
| ROIC | -4.8% | 6/14 |
| Gross Margin | 26.5% | 4/7 |
| Operating Margin | -12.6% | 3/8 |
| Net Margin | -10.1% | 1/5 |
| EBT Margin | -10.6% | 3/9 |
| Tax Rate | 3.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.26x | 11/18 |
| Quick Ratio | 3.33x | 5/7 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.30x | 8/15 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.30x | 7/14 |
| Interest Coverage | -33.9x | 9/14 |
| Working Capital | $1.44B | 5/18 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $59M | 3/17 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$25M | 5/13 |
| Capital Spending | -$84M | 8/13 |
| FCF/Sales | -1.2% | 3/9 |
| CapEx/Sales | 4.2% | 6/9 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.35x | 4/9 |
| Receivables Turnover | 10.9x | 5/7 |
| Inventory Turnover | 3.6x | 3/6 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 9.9x | 6/10 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 33 days | 3/7 |
| Days Inventory | 102 days | 4/6 |
| Payables Period | 43 days | 7/9 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 92 days | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.00B | 3/10 |
| Operating Income | -$253M | 11/15 |
| Net Income | -$203M | 6/9 |
| R&D Expense | $119M | 8/15 |
| SG&A Expense | $423M | 1/5 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $1.47B | 3/10 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AVAV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 51M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $1.88B | 32.8% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $278M | 4.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $183M | 3.2% of assets |
| Inventory | $411M | 7.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.33B | 23.3% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $267M | 4.7% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
AVAV quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Aircraft
Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Aerovironment Inc (Aircraft): 18 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV Aerovironment Inc | ▼ | $6.19B |
| BA Boeing Co | ▶ | $150.34B |
| EMBJ Embraer S.A. | ▶ | $13.08B |
| JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. | ▶ | $4.61B |
| BETA Beta Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $4.22B |
| ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. | ▼ | $3.13B |
| AVEX Aevex Corp. | ▼ | $1.75B |
| EVEX Eve Holding, Inc. | ▲ | $565M |
| AIRO Airo Group Holdings, Inc. | ▼ | $167M |
| DPRO Draganfly Inc. | ▲ | $153M |
| HOVR New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. | ▼ | $92M |
| EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. | ▶ | $69M |
| UAVS Ageagle Aerial Systems Inc. | ▼ | $44M |
| MOB Mobilicom Ltd | ▲ | $37M |
| DUKR Duke Robotics Corp. | ▼ | $15M |
| XERI Xeriant, Inc. | ▶ | $10M |
| BRQL Dynamic Aerospace Systems Corp | ▶ | $7M |
| MTTN Matternet, Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
Where AVAV sits on the market map
Manufacturing · Aircraft
News
Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) stock news
AV and Thunder Tiger Sign MOU to Explore Uncrewed Systems Integration and Co-Production in Taiwan
Collaboration will explore integration of AV capabilities with Thunder Tiger platforms, potential UAS co-production and ...
AV and NIOA Sign Agreement to Advance One-Way Attack Localization and Co-Production in Australia
Companies to explore Australian production, integration, sustainment and support for AV’s one-way attack systems. PERTH, ...
FAQ
Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Aerovironment Inc (AVAV) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Aerovironment Inc outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Aerovironment Inc stock predictions?
For AVAV, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 17.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 11.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Aerovironment Inc forecasts updated?
Aerovironment Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Aerovironment Inc's industry peers?
18 issuers in our coverage, AVAV included, share the SEC industry code Aircraft. The largest are: Boeing Co (BA), Embraer S.A. (EMBJ), Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY), Beta Technologies, Inc. (BETA), Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR), Aevex Corp. (AVEX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.