Why Genius Sports Shares Jumped Today
The relatively unknown company should be measurably better known after today.
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Rating · 90D
▲ Bullish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Total
Rank in coverage
Top 35%
of 5184 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
48.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$1.70B
small-cap · #9 of 22 peers
Summary
Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Genius Sports Ltd outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Genius Sports Ltd is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.70B. It ranks number 9 by market capitalization among the 22 Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For GENI, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 48.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, GENI included.
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GENI price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How GENI ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2025-12-31
Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.70B | 9/22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.35x | 5/12 |
| EPS | $-0.56 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $2.71 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | -22.7% | 7/10 |
| ROA | -14.5% | 11/15 |
| ROIC | -16.3% | 13/15 |
| Gross Margin | 19.8% | 7/7 |
| Operating Margin | -17.9% | 12/17 |
| Net Margin | -23.3% | 9/14 |
| EBT Margin | -18.3% | 12/18 |
| Tax Rate | -3.8% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56x | 6/20 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.56x | 4/12 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.56x | 11/14 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.56x | 10/13 |
| Interest Coverage | -63.6x | 14/16 |
| Working Capital | $197M | 3/20 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $57M | 11/23 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Inventory Turnover | 2001.5x | – |
| Days Inventory | 0 days | – |
| Payables Period | 72 days | 4/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | -$127M | 19/21 |
| Net Income | -$164M | 15/17 |
| R&D Expense | $40M | 2/5 |
| SG&A Expense | $393M | 5/11 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $568M | 3/9 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | GENI | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 268M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $550M | 48.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $281M | 24.8% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $130M | 11.5% of assets |
| Inventory | $280K | 0.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $406M | 35.9% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $241M | 21.3% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
GENI quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation
Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Genius Sports Ltd (Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation): 24 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| GENI Genius Sports Ltd | ▲ | $1.70B |
| DIS Walt Disney Co | ▼ | $190.95B |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | ▼ | $9.54B |
| DKNG Draftkings Inc. | ▲ | $9.31B |
| SGHC Super Group (Sghc) Ltd | ▼ | $5.61B |
| MTN Vail Resorts Inc | ▼ | $5.38B |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | ▲ | $4.29B |
| STUB Stubhub Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.24B |
| BRSL Brightstar Lottery Plc | ▶ | $1.78B |
| PRKS United Parks & Resorts Inc. | ▲ | $1.47B |
| FBYD Falcon's Beyond Global, Inc. | ▼ | $403M |
| BUKS Butler National Corp | ▶ | $312M |
| SEG Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. | ▶ | $292M |
| XPOF Xponential Fitness, Inc. | ▲ | $220M |
| ENHA Enhanced Group Inc. | ▼ | $149M |
| GRSD Grandstand Ltd | ▶ | $47M |
| SEAT Vivid Seats Inc. | ▲ | $32M |
| PRKA Parks America, Inc | ▼ | $31M |
| TBTC Table Trac Inc | ▼ | $23M |
| EVTK Eventiko Inc. | ▶ | $10M |
| BRVO Bravo Multinational Inc. | ▶ | $980K |
| VIVC Vivic Corp. | ▶ | $550K |
| GAMG Global Asset Management Group, Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
| LIMX Limitless X Holdings Inc. | ▶ | N/A |
Where GENI sits on the market map
Trade & Services · Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation
News
Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) stock news
What To Expect From Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) Q4 2025 Earnings
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 18 analysts, the average target price for Genius Sports Ltd (NYSE:GENI) is $12.53, with a high estimate of $16 and a low estimate of $6. The average ...
Earnings To Watch: Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) Reports Q3 2025 Result
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FAQ
Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Genius Sports Ltd outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Genius Sports Ltd stock predictions?
For GENI, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 48.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 17.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Genius Sports Ltd forecasts updated?
Genius Sports Ltd forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Genius Sports Ltd's industry peers?
24 issuers in our coverage, GENI included, share the SEC industry code Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation. The largest are: Walt Disney Co (DIS), Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), Draftkings Inc. (DKNG), Super Group (Sghc) Ltd (SGHC), Vail Resorts Inc (MTN), Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.