How Loyalty Overhaul At Southwest Airlines (LUV) Has Changed Its Investment Story
Southwest Airlines has overhauled its Rapid Rewards program with new Silver, Gold, and Platinum tiers, Milestone Rewards, ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Total
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Total
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5184 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
10.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$19.32B
large-cap · #4 of 13 peers
Summary
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, LUV is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Southwest Airlines Co is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $19.32B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 13 Air Transportation, Scheduled issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For LUV, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 10.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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LUV price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How LUV ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Air Transportation, Scheduled peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $19.32B | 4/13 |
| P/E Ratio | 45.40x | 2/6 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.42x | 2/8 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.91% | – |
| EPS | $0.87 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $16.31 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $61.47 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-0.93 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Margin | 3.5% | 6/9 |
| EBT Margin | 3.6% | 4/9 |
| Tax Rate | 21.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.49x | 9/11 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.64x | 7/10 |
| Interest Coverage | 3.1x | 2/8 |
| Working Capital | -$6.79B | 9/11 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.53B | 5/9 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$456M | 6/7 |
| Capital Spending | -$2.98B | 4/7 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 36.7% | 1/6 |
| FCF/Sales | -1.5% | 5/7 |
| CapEx/Sales | 9.9% | 4/7 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receivables Turnover | 385.5x | 1/7 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.5x | 5/9 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 1 days | 7/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $30.07B | 5/9 |
| Operating Income | $1.04B | 4/9 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | LUV | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $0.76 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 87.4% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 489M | – |
| EPS Growth | 52.6% | 1/6 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $6.48B | 22.3% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $3.79B | 13.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $78M | 0.3% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $21.08B | 72.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $11.20B | 38.5% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
LUV quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Air Transportation, Scheduled
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Southwest Airlines Co (Air Transportation, Scheduled): 13 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co | ▶ | $19.32B |
| DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | ▶ | $49.57B |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $31.19B |
| RYAAY Ryanair Holdings Plc | ▶ | $27.42B |
| LTM Latam Airlines Group S.A. | ▶ | $13.63B |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | ▲ | $7.86B |
| CPA Copa Holdings, S.A. | ▶ | $5.47B |
| ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | ▲ | $3.92B |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Co | ▲ | $1.83B |
| AZUL Azul Sa | ▼ | $1.17B |
| ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $1.08B |
| RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $751M |
| FJET Starfighters Space, Inc. | ▲ | $61M |
Where LUV sits on the market map
Energy & Transportation · Air Transportation, Scheduled
News
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) stock news
Southwest Airlines expands loyalty benefits, adds premium travel offerings
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is expanding its loyalty program with new membership tiers, international partnerships, and premium ...
MORE TO LOVE FROM RAPID REWARDS: SOUTHWEST AIRLINES EXPANDS REWARDS, REDEMPTION, AND MEMBER BENEFITS
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) announced today the next evolution of its award-winning Rapid Rewards® program, making the ...
FAQ
Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, LUV is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Southwest Airlines Co stock predictions?
For LUV, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 10.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Southwest Airlines Co forecasts updated?
Southwest Airlines Co forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Southwest Airlines Co's industry peers?
13 issuers in our coverage, LUV included, share the SEC industry code Air Transportation, Scheduled. The largest are: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL), Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYAAY), Latam Airlines Group S.A. (LTM), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.