Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $160.23B. It ranks number 5 by market capitalization among the 20 Commercial Banks, NEC issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its P/E Ratio of 2.83x is the lowest of the 15 peers that report one.
For SMFG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 21.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How SMFG ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Commercial Banks, NEC peers listed below that report each metric. Statement values were filed in JPY and are shown converted to USD (flows at the trailing twelve-month average rate, balances at the balance-sheet date rate).
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SMFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $160.23B | 5/20 |
| P/E Ratio | 2.83x | 15/15 |
| EPS | $8.73 | – |
| FCF/Share | $6.69 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SMFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tax Rate | 23.3% | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SMFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $45.23B | 4/20 |
| Free Cash Flow | $43.29B | 1/11 |
| Capital Spending | -$1.94B | 7/11 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 0.0% | 3/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SMFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| R&D Expense | $620K | – |
| SG&A Expense | $45.36B | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SMFG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 6474M | – |
| EPS Growth | -28.1% | 15/15 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions, converted from JPY)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $501.80B | |
| Total Liabilities | $1.84T |
SMFG quarterly financials and insider trading
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (Commercial Banks, NEC): 23 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. | ▼ | $160.23B |
| RY Royal Bank Of Canada | ▼ | $277.04B |
| MUFG Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Group Inc | ▶ | $259.67B |
| TD Toronto Dominion Bank | ▼ | $203.40B |
| SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | ▼ | $195.37B |
| BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | ▼ | $146.83B |
| HDB Hdfc Bank Ltd | ▼ | $121.50B |
| BMO Bank Of Montreal /Can/ | ▼ | $118.44B |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce /Can/ | ▼ | $104.22B |
| ING Ing Groep Nv | ▼ | $97.09B |
| LYG Lloyds Banking Group Plc | ▼ | $81.48B |
| BCS Barclays Plc | ▼ | $77.53B |
| NWG Natwest Group Plc | ▼ | $70.31B |
| BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | ▼ | $20.90B |
| BSAC Banco Santander Chile | ▼ | $15.40B |
| GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia Sa | ▼ | $6.02B |
| NTB Bank Of N.T. Butterfield & Son Ltd | ▼ | $2.34B |
| ESQ Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $1.44B |
| PGC Peapack Gladstone Financial Corp | ▶ | $769M |
| VBNK Versabank | ▶ | $710M |
| AVAL Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. | ▶ | N/A |
| DJP Barclays Bank Plc | ▼ | N/A |
| WBKCY Westpac Banking Corp | ▼ | N/A |
Where SMFG sits on the market map
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock news
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. stock predictions?
For SMFG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 21.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 1.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. forecasts updated?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.'s industry peers?
23 issuers in our coverage, SMFG included, share the SEC industry code Commercial Banks, NEC. The largest are: Royal Bank Of Canada (RY), Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Group Inc (MUFG), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA), Hdfc Bank Ltd (HDB).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.