Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, SMG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.18B. It ranks number 5 by market capitalization among the 12 Agricultural Chemicals issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For SMG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 10.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -7.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How SMG ranks among 5184 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Agricultural Chemicals peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.18B | 5/12 |
| P/E Ratio | 45.48x | 1/5 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.86% | – |
| EPS | $1.20 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $59.01 | – |
| FCF/Share | $4.52 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.3% | 4/6 |
| ROIC | 19.4% | 4/8 |
| Gross Margin | 33.7% | 7/10 |
| Operating Margin | 11.6% | 5/11 |
| Net Margin | 2.1% | 5/8 |
| EBT Margin | 7.8% | 5/11 |
| Tax Rate | 37.2% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21x | 10/11 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.78x | 6/10 |
| Interest Coverage | 6.1x | 2/8 |
| Working Capital | $238M | 6/11 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $369M | 5/12 |
| Free Cash Flow | $263M | 3/9 |
| Capital Spending | -$106M | 6/9 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 17.0% | 5/7 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 7.7% | 1/6 |
| FCF/Sales | 7.7% | 5/9 |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.1% | 8/9 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.08x | 4/9 |
| Receivables Turnover | 4.8x | 7/8 |
| Inventory Turnover | 4.7x | 6/10 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 5.4x | 3/10 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 76 days | 2/8 |
| Days Inventory | 77 days | 5/10 |
| Payables Period | 50 days | 5/9 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 103 days | 4/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $3.44B | 5/11 |
| Operating Income | $400M | 4/12 |
| Net Income | $74M | 5/8 |
| SG&A Expense | $588M | 1/8 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $2.28B | 5/10 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | SMG | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $2.65 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 220.8% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 58M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 39.2% | – |
| EPS Growth | 42.9% | 4/6 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $1.35B | 42.6% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $28M | 0.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $713M | 22.5% of assets |
| Inventory | $481M | 15.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $3.38B | |
| Short-term Debt | $800M | 25.3% of assets |
SMG quarterly financials and insider trading
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (Agricultural Chemicals): 12 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Co | ▶ | $3.18B |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | ▶ | $34.66B |
| CF Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $18.29B |
| ICL Icl Group Ltd. | ▼ | $6.41B |
| MOS Mosaic Co | ▼ | $5.98B |
| UAN Cvr Partners, Lp | ▶ | $1.34B |
| CBUS Cibus, Inc. | ▲ | $101M |
| AVD American Vanguard Corp | ▲ | $31M |
| BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | ▶ | $18M |
| BNET Bion Environmental Technologies Inc | ▲ | $10M |
| EVGN Evogene Ltd. | ▶ | $6M |
| SNES Senestech, Inc. | ▶ | $4M |
Where SMG sits on the market map
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) stock news
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Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, SMG is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5184 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Scotts Miracle-Gro Co stock predictions?
For SMG, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 10.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -7.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Scotts Miracle-Gro Co forecasts updated?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Scotts Miracle-Gro Co's industry peers?
12 issuers in our coverage, SMG included, share the SEC industry code Agricultural Chemicals. The largest are: Nutrien Ltd. (NTR), Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), Icl Group Ltd. (ICL), Mosaic Co (MOS), Cvr Partners, Lp (UAN), Cibus, Inc. (CBUS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.