Tompkins Financial Corp's Dividend Analysis
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Model output · Signal date 2026-11-06
Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) Stock Forecast Nov. 6, 2026
Analysis updated on Nov. 6, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Rating · 90D
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90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
of 5150 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-16.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$1.43B
small-cap · #60 of 60 peers
Summary
Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) stock forecast summary
Our AI scores Tompkins Financial Corp every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
Tompkins Financial Corp is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.43B. It ranks number 60 by market capitalization among the 60 State Commercial Banks issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For TMP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -16.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -15.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +3.1%, buy ≥ +1.5%, sell < -0.5%, strong sell < -1.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-11-06 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, TMP included.
Price
TMP price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-11-06
How TMP ranks among 5150 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-09-30
Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the State Commercial Banks peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.43B | 60/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 7.90x | 57/58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52x | 18/57 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.71% | 25/51 |
| EPS | $12.58 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $65.25 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $31.25 | – |
| FCF/Share | $3.47 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 19.2% | 3/55 |
| ROA | 2.0% | 2/52 |
| Net Margin | 40.2% | 11/56 |
| EBT Margin | 55.9% | 8/57 |
| Tax Rate | 28.0% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 8.59x | 15/59 |
| Financial Leverage | 9.59x | 13/54 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $59M | 54/58 |
| Free Cash Flow | $50M | 42/45 |
| Capital Spending | -$9M | 14/45 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -40.6% | 52/55 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -47.5% | 42/43 |
| FCF/Sales | 11.1% | 40/44 |
| CapEx/Sales | 2.1% | 22/44 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.05x | 6/52 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 6.4x | 23/55 |
Income Statement
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $448M | 49/57 |
| Net Income | $180M | 43/56 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | TMP | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $2.70 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 21.5% | 41/51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 103.7% | 7/55 |
| EPS Growth | 112.9% | 6/56 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $242M | 2.7% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $8.04B | 89.5% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
TMP quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · State Commercial Banks
Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Tompkins Financial Corp (State Commercial Banks): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| TMP Tompkins Financial Corp | $1.43B | |
| BNS Bank Of Nova Scotia | $113.35B | |
| DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft | $66.30B | |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $48.10B | |
| STT State Street Corp | $45.05B | |
| MTB M&T Bank Corp | $31.74B | |
| NTRS Northern Trust Corp | $31.29B | |
| BBD Bank Bradesco | $26.92B | |
| CFG Citizens Financial Group Inc/Ri | $26.51B | |
| FCNCA First Citizens Bancshares Inc /De/ | $25.68B | |
| EWBC East West Bancorp Inc | $17.65B | |
| ALLY Ally Financial Inc. | $11.61B | |
| WTFC Wintrust Financial Corp | $10.24B | |
| SSB Southstate Bank Corp | $10.07B | |
| BPOP Popular, Inc. | $9.98B | |
| CBC Central Bancompany, Inc. | $9.04B | |
| PB Prosperity Bancshares Inc | $8.64B | |
| COLB Columbia Banking System, Inc. | $8.62B | |
| WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $8.16B | |
| CBSH Commerce Bancshares Inc /Mo/ | $7.89B | |
| UBSI United Bankshares Inc/Wv | $6.59B | |
| GBCI Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | $6.27B | |
| HOMB Home Bancshares Inc | $5.97B | |
| HWC Hancock Whitney Corp | $5.73B | |
| ASB Associated Banc-Corp | $5.64B | |
| AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp | $5.62B | |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp | $5.49B | |
| SFBS Servisfirst Bancshares, Inc. | $4.49B | |
| UCB United Community Banks Inc | $4.46B | |
| FFIN First Financial Bankshares Inc | $4.36B | |
| TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares Inc/Tx | $4.29B | |
| CATY Cathay General Bancorp | $4.28B | |
| IBOC International Bancshares Corp | $4.25B | |
| CVBF Cvb Financial Corp | $4.00B | |
| INDB Independent Bank Corp | $4.00B | |
| FBP First Bancorp /Pr/ | $3.97B | |
| RNST Renasant Corp | $3.63B | |
| FIBK First Interstate Bancsystem Inc | $3.60B | |
| MCHB Mechanics Bancorp | $3.26B | |
| SBCF Seacoast Banking Corp Of Florida | $3.25B | |
| FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | $3.04B | |
| CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. | $2.86B | |
| BOH Bank Of Hawaii Corp | $2.73B | |
| FBK Fb Financial Corp | $2.71B | |
| FBNC First Bancorp /Nc/ | $2.67B | |
| SYBT Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. | $2.46B | |
| BANR Banner Corp | $2.38B | |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | $2.38B | |
| BUSE First Busey Corp /Nv/ | $2.36B | |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | $2.22B | |
| OFG Ofg Bancorp | $2.15B | |
| SRCE 1st Source Corp | $2.10B | |
| HTH Hilltop Holdings Inc. | $2.07B | |
| GABC German American Bancorp, Inc. | $1.88B | |
| STBA S&T Bancorp Inc | $1.79B | |
| RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc /Ky/ | $1.78B | |
| BY Byline Bancorp, Inc. | $1.72B | |
| TCBK Trico Bancshares / | $1.68B | |
| QCRH Qcr Holdings Inc | $1.65B | |
| OBK Origin Bancorp, Inc. | $1.64B |
Where TMP sits on the market map
Finance · State Commercial Banks
News
Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) stock news
Form 8-K TOMPKINS FINANCIAL CORP For: Apr 27
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.) Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant ...
Tompkins Community Bank Names Phil Quintana President-Elect; Quintana Succeeds John McKenna, Who Will Retire in July 2026
Tompkins Financial Corp. today announced that Phillip M. Quintana has been appointed President-Elect of Tompkins Community Bank, effective immediately. He will succeed John McKenna, who will retire as ...
FAQ
Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Tompkins Financial Corp (TMP) stock forecast?
Our AI scores Tompkins Financial Corp every trading day against every stock it covers. Create a free account and follow it to see its rating and price target.
How accurate are Tompkins Financial Corp stock predictions?
For TMP, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -16.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-08-07 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -15.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-08-19 and 2026-10-07. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4629 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-08-04 produced a positive net return in 92.9% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Tompkins Financial Corp forecasts updated?
Tompkins Financial Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Nov. 6, 2026.
Which companies are Tompkins Financial Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, TMP included, share the SEC industry code State Commercial Banks. The largest are: Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS), Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street Corp (STT), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), Northern Trust Corp (NTRS).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.