Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Assured Guaranty Ltd outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Assured Guaranty Ltd is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.12B. It ranks number 4 by market capitalization among the 6 Surety Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For AGO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 15.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.1%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How AGO ranks among 5185 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Surety Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.12B | 4/6 |
| P/E Ratio | 9.41x | 1/5 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.56x | 5/5 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.18% | – |
| EPS | $7.53 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $126.40 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $21.37 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3% | 5/5 |
| ROA | 2.8% | 5/6 |
| Net Margin | 37.3% | 3/6 |
| EBT Margin | 44.0% | 4/6 |
| Tax Rate | 8.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 1.27x | 2/5 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.27x | 2/5 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $324M | 5/6 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 42.1% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.07x | 5/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $940M | 4/6 |
| Net Income | $351M | 5/6 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | AGO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.55 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 20.6% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 44M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -25.0% | 5/5 |
| EPS Growth | -17.2% | 5/5 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $331M | 2.6% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $7.06B | 55.9% of assets |
AGO quarterly financials and insider trading
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Assured Guaranty Ltd (Surety Insurance): 6 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) stock news
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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Assured Guaranty Ltd outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Assured Guaranty Ltd stock predictions?
For AGO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 15.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 21.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Assured Guaranty Ltd forecasts updated?
Assured Guaranty Ltd forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Assured Guaranty Ltd's industry peers?
6 issuers in our coverage, AGO included, share the SEC industry code Surety Insurance. The largest are: Old Republic International Corp (ORI), Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT), Radian Group Inc (RDN), Nmi Holdings, Inc. (NMIH), Mbia Inc (MBI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.