Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Essent Group Ltd. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Essent Group Ltd. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $5.82B. It ranks number 2 by market capitalization among the 6 Surety Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For ESNT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 28.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 13.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How ESNT ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Surety Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $5.82B | 2/6 |
| P/E Ratio | 9.01x | 2/5 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03x | 3/5 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% | – |
| EPS | $7.18 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $63.01 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $14.72 | – |
| FCF/Share | $9.19 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 12.0% | 3/5 |
| ROA | 9.0% | 2/6 |
| Net Margin | 51.5% | 2/6 |
| EBT Margin | 62.0% | 2/6 |
| Tax Rate | 17.1% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 0.34x | 5/5 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.34x | 5/5 |
| Interest Coverage | 28.7x | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $834M | 3/6 |
| Free Cash Flow | $826M | – |
| Capital Spending | -$8M | – |
| OCF Growth YoY | -3.8% | – |
| FCF Growth YoY | -4.5% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 62.4% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.6% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.17x | 3/6 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 27.7x | – |
Income Statement
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.32B | 3/6 |
| Net Income | $681M | 2/6 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | ESNT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.38 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 19.2% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 90M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -4.8% | 3/5 |
| EPS Growth | 4.7% | 3/5 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $74M | 1.0% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.93B | 25.5% of assets |
ESNT quarterly financials and insider trading
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Essent Group Ltd. (Surety Insurance): 6 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) stock news
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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Essent Group Ltd. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Essent Group Ltd. stock predictions?
For ESNT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 28.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 13.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Essent Group Ltd. forecasts updated?
Essent Group Ltd. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Essent Group Ltd.'s industry peers?
6 issuers in our coverage, ESNT included, share the SEC industry code Surety Insurance. The largest are: Old Republic International Corp (ORI), Radian Group Inc (RDN), Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO), Nmi Holdings, Inc. (NMIH), Mbia Inc (MBI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.