Radian Group Inc (RDN) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Radian Group Inc (RDN) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, RDN is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Radian Group Inc is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $4.45B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 6 Surety Insurance issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For RDN, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 39.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 31.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How RDN ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Radian Group Inc (RDN) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Surety Insurance peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $4.45B | 3/6 |
| P/E Ratio | 8.46x | 3/5 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92x | 4/5 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.20% | – |
| EPS | $3.97 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $36.34 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $12.11 | – |
| FCF/Share | $10.51 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 11.2% | 4/5 |
| ROA | 5.0% | 3/6 |
| Gross Margin | 97.7% | – |
| Net Margin | 33.5% | 4/6 |
| EBT Margin | 46.9% | 3/6 |
| Tax Rate | 22.9% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 1.22x | 3/5 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.22x | 3/5 |
| Interest Coverage | 5.6x | – |
Cash Flow
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.39B | 1/6 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.39B | – |
| Capital Spending | -$3M | – |
| FCF/Sales | 86.8% | – |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.2% | – |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.15x | 4/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.60B | 2/6 |
| Net Income | $536M | 3/6 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $37M | – |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | RDN | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.08 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 27.2% | – |
| Shares Outstanding | 132M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -8.6% | 4/5 |
| EPS Growth | 0.2% | 4/5 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $119M | 1.1% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $5.85B | 54.8% of assets |
RDN quarterly financials and insider trading
Radian Group Inc (RDN) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Radian Group Inc (Surety Insurance): 6 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
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Radian Group Inc (RDN) stock news
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Radian Group Inc (RDN) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Radian Group Inc (RDN) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, RDN is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Radian Group Inc stock predictions?
For RDN, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 39.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 31.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Radian Group Inc forecasts updated?
Radian Group Inc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Radian Group Inc's industry peers?
6 issuers in our coverage, RDN included, share the SEC industry code Surety Insurance. The largest are: Old Republic International Corp (ORI), Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT), Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO), Nmi Holdings, Inc. (NMIH), Mbia Inc (MBI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.