Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · NYSE
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Ellington Financial Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Ellington Financial Inc. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.50B. It ranks number 12 by market capitalization among the 35 Real Estate issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For EFC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 45.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 24.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How EFC ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Real Estate peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | EFC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.50B | 12/35 |
| P/E Ratio | 9.96x | 12/17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.76x | 19/29 |
| Dividend Yield | 13.66% | 4/10 |
| EPS | $1.17 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $15.25 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | EFC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 9.9% | 4/22 |
| ROA | 0.9% | 14/25 |
| Tax Rate | 1.5% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | EFC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 9.68x | 3/32 |
| Financial Leverage | 10.70x | 2/29 |
| Interest Coverage | 0.6x | 15/25 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | EFC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$618M | 33/33 |
Income Statement
| Metric | EFC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $194M | 4/25 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | EFC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $1.59 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 135.9% | 3/8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 129M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 71.5% | 3/14 |
| EPS Growth | -1.7% | 10/15 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $247M | 1.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $19.03B | 90.6% of assets |
EFC quarterly financials and insider trading
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Ellington Financial Inc. (Real Estate): 37 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| EFC Ellington Financial Inc. | ▼ | $1.50B |
| CBRE Cbre Group, Inc. | ▶ | $38.54B |
| TRNO Terreno Realty Corp | ▼ | $6.97B |
| FSV Firstservice Corp | ▼ | $6.20B |
| CIGI Colliers International Group Inc. | ▶ | $4.59B |
| MRP Millrose Properties, Inc. | ▶ | $3.69B |
| VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. De C.V. | ▼ | $3.22B |
| CURB Curbline Properties Corp. | ▶ | $3.05B |
| CWK Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. | ▶ | $2.65B |
| UE Urban Edge Properties | ▼ | $2.44B |
| GTY Getty Realty Corp /Md/ | ▶ | $1.76B |
| BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. | ▶ | $1.57B |
| IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties Inc | ▼ | $1.44B |
| FOR Forestar Group Inc. | ▲ | $1.31B |
| SKYH Sky Harbour Group Corp | ▶ | $694M |
| FPH Five Point Holdings, Llc | ▶ | $654M |
| HPP Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | ▲ | $558M |
| TRC Tejon Ranch Co | ▲ | $447M |
| AHRT Ah Realty Trust, Inc. | ▲ | $445M |
| FRPH Frp Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $369M |
| OPI Office Properties Income Trust | ▶ | $306M |
| MLP Maui Land & Pineapple Co Inc | ▶ | $293M |
| CHCI Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | ▲ | $173M |
| AOMR Angel Oak Mortgage Reit, Inc. | ▶ | $168M |
| CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | ▲ | $166M |
| OZ Belpointe Prep, Llc | ▶ | $150M |
| SRG Seritage Growth Properties | ▲ | $93M |
| LPA Logistic Properties Of The Americas | ▲ | $88M |
| AEI Alset Inc. | ▲ | $25M |
| DUO Fangdd Network Group Ltd. | ▲ | $23M |
| AIRE Realpha Tech Corp. | ▼ | $6M |
| CWD Calibercos Inc. | ▼ | $5M |
| CSUI Cannabis Suisse Corp. | ▶ | $540K |
| NIHK Video River Networks, Inc. | ▼ | $530K |
| AOXY Advanced Oxygen Technologies Inc | ▲ | $250K |
| GSFI Green Stream Holdings Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
| MYCB My City Builders, Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
Where EFC sits on the market map
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) stock news
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Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Ellington Financial Inc. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Ellington Financial Inc. stock predictions?
For EFC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 45.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 24.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Ellington Financial Inc. forecasts updated?
Ellington Financial Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Ellington Financial Inc.'s industry peers?
37 issuers in our coverage, EFC included, share the SEC industry code Real Estate. The largest are: Cbre Group, Inc. (CBRE), Terreno Realty Corp (TRNO), Firstservice Corp (FSV), Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI), Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP), Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. De C.V. (VTMX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.