Quick spark: Marathon Petroleum nears 10-month winning streak last seen in 2013
On March 27, 2013, the Miami Heat’s 27-game winning streak ended in Chicago. One day later, Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPC ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Total
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Total
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-1.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$134.25B
large-cap · #3 of 15 peers
Summary
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, MPC is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Marathon Petroleum Corp is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $134.25B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 15 Petroleum Refining issuers in our coverage with a current forecast. Its Dividend Yield of 0.86% is the lowest of the 8 peers that report one.
For MPC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -1.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 2.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, MPC included.
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MPC price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How MPC ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Petroleum Refining peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $134.25B | 3/15 |
| P/E Ratio | 16.65x | 8/11 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.50x | 3/10 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.86% | 8/8 |
| EPS | $28.72 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $86.90 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $425.09 | – |
| FCF/Share | $45.93 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 23.8% | 2/10 |
| Gross Margin | -12.6% | 9/11 |
| Operating Margin | 9.8% | 2/8 |
| Net Margin | 4.0% | 6/11 |
| EBT Margin | 8.8% | 5/11 |
| Tax Rate | 19.3% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.25x | 10/13 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.89x | 7/12 |
| D/E Ratio | 2.24x | 6/13 |
| Interest Coverage | 16.9x | 3/8 |
| Working Capital | $6.87B | 4/13 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $17.13B | 5/13 |
| Free Cash Flow | $12.90B | 3/8 |
| Capital Spending | -$4.23B | 6/8 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 164.9% | 4/10 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 253.7% | – |
| FCF/Sales | 10.8% | 2/8 |
| CapEx/Sales | 3.5% | 6/8 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receivables Turnover | 7.6x | 10/11 |
| Inventory Turnover | 13.5x | 6/11 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 3.1x | 5/12 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 48 days | 2/11 |
| Days Inventory | 27 days | 6/11 |
| Payables Period | 52 days | 4/9 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 23 days | 1/7 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $119.38B | 6/13 |
| Operating Income | $14.13B | 3/8 |
| Net Income | $5.80B | 5/11 |
| SG&A Expense | $3.46B | 3/9 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $134.39B | 2/11 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MPC | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $4.13 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 14.4% | 7/8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 281M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 0.0% | 5/9 |
| EPS Growth | 302.8% | 3/7 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $34.29B | 39.9% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $7.77B | 9.0% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $15.74B | 18.3% of assets |
| Inventory | $9.97B | 11.6% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $54.59B | 63.5% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $8.19B | 9.5% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
MPC quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Petroleum Refining
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Marathon Petroleum Corp (Petroleum Refining): 15 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp | ▶ | $134.25B |
| CVX Chevron Corp | ▼ | $444.53B |
| COP Conocophillips | ▼ | $176.01B |
| BP Bp Plc | ▼ | $129.61B |
| VLO Valero Energy Corp/Tx | ▼ | $128.04B |
| EQNR Equinor Asa | ▼ | $117.46B |
| PSX Phillips 66 | ▼ | $116.98B |
| IMO Imperial Oil Ltd | ▼ | $64.76B |
| YPF Ypf Sociedad Anonima | ▼ | $20.10B |
| SUN Sunoco Lp | ▶ | $10.03B |
| PBF Pbf Energy Inc. | ▲ | $10.02B |
| CVI Cvr Energy Inc | ▶ | $6.17B |
| IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. | ▼ | $4.73B |
| DK Delek Us Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $4.69B |
| SUNC Sunococorp Llc | ▶ | $3.73B |
Where MPC sits on the market map
Energy & Transportation · Petroleum Refining
News
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock news
Marathon Petroleum Corp. Announces Quarterly Dividend
The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for ...
Marathon Petroleum Corp stock hits all-time high at $398.68 USD
Marathon Petroleum Corp stock reached an all-time high of $398.68 USD, marking a significant milestone for the company. The stock currently trades at $398.42, just 1% below its 52-week high of $398.52 ...
FAQ
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, MPC is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Marathon Petroleum Corp stock predictions?
For MPC, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -1.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 2.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Marathon Petroleum Corp forecasts updated?
Marathon Petroleum Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Marathon Petroleum Corp's industry peers?
15 issuers in our coverage, MPC included, share the SEC industry code Petroleum Refining. The largest are: Chevron Corp (CVX), Conocophillips (COP), Bp Plc (BP), Valero Energy Corp/Tx (VLO), Equinor Asa (EQNR), Phillips 66 (PSX).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.