Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Microsoft Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Microsoft Corp is a mega-cap company with a market capitalization of $3.93T. It ranks number 1 by market capitalization among the 60 Services-Prepackaged Software issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For MSFT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 21.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How MSFT ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Services-Prepackaged Software peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.93T | 1/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 29.47x | 22/39 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.88x | 22/52 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.67% | 7/7 |
| EPS | $17.95 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $59.58 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $44.69 | – |
| FCF/Share | $9.02 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 30.2% | 12/47 |
| ROA | 17.6% | 10/48 |
| ROIC | 26.3% | 10/54 |
| Gross Margin | 67.9% | 40/56 |
| Operating Margin | 46.8% | 1/59 |
| Net Margin | 40.3% | 3/50 |
| EBT Margin | 50.0% | 2/59 |
| Tax Rate | 19.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.23x | 38/59 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.22x | 8/9 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.71x | 31/53 |
| Financial Leverage | 1.71x | 30/51 |
| Interest Coverage | 39.8x | 9/46 |
| Working Capital | $38.88B | 1/59 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $182.94B | 1/59 |
| Free Cash Flow | $66.99B | 1/50 |
| Capital Spending | -$115.95B | 50/50 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 34.4% | 21/52 |
| FCF Growth YoY | -6.5% | 40/43 |
| FCF/Sales | 20.2% | 33/50 |
| CapEx/Sales | 34.9% | 3/50 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.44x | 35/49 |
| Receivables Turnover | 4.1x | 48/52 |
| Inventory Turnover | 76.1x | 3/8 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 1.1x | 49/51 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 89 days | 5/52 |
| Days Inventory | 5 days | 6/8 |
| Payables Period | 146 days | 4/55 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -52 days | 6/6 |
Income Statement
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $331.84B | 1/53 |
| Operating Income | $155.24B | 1/59 |
| Net Income | $133.75B | 1/50 |
| R&D Expense | $35.56B | 1/59 |
| SG&A Expense | $59.48B | 1/58 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $106.37B | 1/57 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | MSFT | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dividends Per Share | $3.56 | – |
| Payout Ratio | 19.8% | 5/7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 7426M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 31.3% | 12/30 |
| EPS Growth | 31.6% | 15/36 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $207.71B | 27.4% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $20.93B | 2.8% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $80.88B | 10.7% of assets |
| Inventory | $1.40B | 0.2% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $315.99B | 41.7% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $126.41B | 16.7% of assets |
MSFT quarterly financials and insider trading
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Microsoft Corp (Services-Prepackaged Software): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT Microsoft Corp | ▼ | $3.93T |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | ▲ | $447.01B |
| ORCL Oracle Corp | ▲ | $387.73B |
| SAP Sap Se | ▼ | $275.54B |
| CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $232.83B |
| SHOP Shopify Inc. | ▲ | $218.11B |
| CRM Salesforce, Inc. | ▶ | $198.10B |
| NET Cloudflare, Inc. | ▲ | $105.51B |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | ▼ | $95.43B |
| DDOG Datadog, Inc. | ▲ | $88.73B |
| SNPS Synopsys Inc | ▼ | $87.12B |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems Inc | ▼ | $86.97B |
| NTES Netease, Inc. | ▼ | $80.22B |
| TEAM Atlassian Corp | ▶ | $52.61B |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc | ▼ | $50.25B |
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | ▼ | $50.14B |
| XYZ Block, Inc. | ▶ | $46.80B |
| TTWO Take Two Interactive Software Inc | ▶ | $38.38B |
| TWLO Twilio Inc | ▲ | $37.53B |
| RBLX Roblox Corp | ▲ | $35.39B |
| CRWV Coreweave, Inc. | ▲ | $33.86B |
| OKTA Okta, Inc. | ▲ | $32.74B |
| MDB Mongodb, Inc. | ▲ | $27.19B |
| RBRK Rubrik, Inc. | ▲ | $23.30B |
| PTC Ptc Inc. | ▶ | $20.94B |
| SSNC Ss&C Technologies Holdings Inc | ▼ | $19.73B |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | ▶ | $18.11B |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | ▶ | $17.66B |
| TYL Tyler Technologies Inc | ▼ | $14.78B |
| CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd | ▼ | $14.56B |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | ▲ | $14.46B |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | ▲ | $13.85B |
| MANH Manhattan Associates Inc | ▶ | $12.95B |
| HUBS Hubspot Inc | ▲ | $11.52B |
| FIG Figma, Inc. | ▲ | $11.45B |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | ▲ | $11.34B |
| SAIL Sailpoint, Inc. | ▲ | $10.70B |
| BSY Bentley Systems Inc | ▶ | $10.69B |
| FROG Jfrog Ltd | ▲ | $10.40B |
| ESTC Elastic N.V. | ▶ | $9.63B |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corp | ▼ | $8.82B |
| GTLB Gitlab Inc. | ▲ | $8.79B |
| PCOR Procore Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $8.66B |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | ▲ | $8.03B |
| ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | ▲ | $7.83B |
| NTSK Netskope Inc | ▲ | $7.76B |
| APPF Appfolio Inc | ▼ | $7.51B |
| S Sentinelone, Inc. | ▲ | $7.51B |
| DSGX Descartes Systems Group Inc | ▼ | $7.49B |
| TTAN Servicetitan, Inc. | ▲ | $7.15B |
| NICE Nice Ltd. | ▲ | $6.78B |
| PATH Uipath, Inc. | ▲ | $6.70B |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | ▲ | $6.63B |
| NAVN Navan, Inc. | ▲ | $6.61B |
| GLBE Global-E Online Ltd. | ▲ | $6.56B |
| QLYS Qualys, Inc. | ▲ | $6.26B |
| CVLT Commvault Systems Inc | ▲ | $6.18B |
| MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. | ▶ | $5.88B |
| VRNS Varonis Systems Inc | ▶ | $5.60B |
| BOX Box Inc | ▲ | $5.43B |
Where MSFT sits on the market map
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock news
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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Microsoft Corp outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Microsoft Corp stock predictions?
For MSFT, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 21.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 9.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Microsoft Corp forecasts updated?
Microsoft Corp forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Microsoft Corp's industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, MSFT included, share the SEC industry code Services-Prepackaged Software. The largest are: Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Oracle Corp (ORCL), Sap Se (SAP), Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), Shopify Inc. (SHOP), Salesforce, Inc. (CRM).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.