Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note
In the latest trading session, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) closed at $17.23, marking a -3.8% move from the previous day.
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Rating · 90D
▲ Bullish
Exact rating locked
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Alpha
Rank in coverage
Top 35%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-2.0%
Spearman, 302 dates
Market Cap
$1.44B
small-cap · #29 of 60 peers
Summary
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock forecast summary
Our AI ranks Pagaya Technologies Ltd. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a small-cap company with a market capitalization of $1.44B. It ranks number 29 by market capitalization among the 60 Finance Services issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For PGY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -2.0%, measured on 302 forecast dates between 2023-08-18 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 6.0%, measured on 345 forecast dates between 2023-08-18 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.8%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
A free account shows the exact forecast, rating and rank of 3 tickers you follow, PGY included.
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PGY price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How PGY ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2026-06-30
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Finance Services peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.44B | 29/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 14.12x | 11/19 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.42x | 15/46 |
| EPS | $1.22 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $7.12 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $16.66 | – |
| FCF/Share | $3.02 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 21.3% | 5/29 |
| ROA | 7.5% | 4/31 |
| Gross Margin | 43.4% | 13/19 |
| Operating Margin | 24.9% | 2/29 |
| Net Margin | 9.1% | 9/28 |
| EBT Margin | 7.1% | 10/41 |
| Tax Rate | -20.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 1.71x | 27/54 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.85x | 26/52 |
| Interest Coverage | 0.9x | 13/33 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $265M | 12/46 |
| Free Cash Flow | $252M | 7/32 |
| Capital Spending | -$13M | 13/32 |
| OCF Growth YoY | 116.4% | 2/18 |
| FCF Growth YoY | 136.3% | 1/10 |
| FCF/Sales | 18.1% | 7/29 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.9% | 20/29 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.82x | 5/35 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 42.6x | 7/34 |
Income Statement
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.39B | 8/38 |
| Operating Income | $345M | 2/32 |
| Net Income | $127M | 7/32 |
| R&D Expense | $71M | 7/11 |
| SG&A Expense | $258M | 10/19 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $787M | 1/21 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | PGY | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 83M | – |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $249M | 15.5% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $1.01B | 63.1% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
PGY quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Finance Services
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Finance Services): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| PGY Pagaya Technologies Ltd. | ▲ | $1.44B |
| AXP American Express Co | ▶ | $211.77B |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | ▲ | $52.57B |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | ▲ | $45.69B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | ▼ | $23.97B |
| CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. | ▲ | $20.87B |
| SOFI Sofi Technologies, Inc. | ▲ | $18.79B |
| BMNR Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | ▶ | $13.07B |
| CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. | ▲ | $11.23B |
| IREN Iren Ltd | ▶ | $10.64B |
| WULF Terawulf Inc. | ▲ | $5.83B |
| RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | ▲ | $5.15B |
| DAVE Dave Inc./De | ▲ | $4.96B |
| KLAR Klarna Group Plc | ▼ | $4.91B |
| BLSH Bullish | ▲ | $4.45B |
| CORZ Core Scientific, Inc./Tx | ▲ | $4.33B |
| CIFR Cipher Digital Inc. | ▲ | $3.73B |
| GPGI Gpgi, Inc. | ▼ | $3.61B |
| MARA Mara Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $2.91B |
| IOND Ionic Digital Inc. | ▶ | $2.83B |
| SII Sprott Inc. | ▶ | $2.79B |
| UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.29B |
| CLSK Cleanspark, Inc. | ▲ | $2.15B |
| BTDR Bitdeer Technologies Group | ▲ | $2.10B |
| ASST Strive, Inc. | ▶ | $2.06B |
| XXI Twenty One Capital, Inc. | ▶ | $1.95B |
| PURR Hyperliquid Strategies Inc | ▲ | $1.79B |
| WLTH Wealthfront Corp | ▲ | $1.66B |
| SECZ Securitize Corp. | ▶ | $1.61B |
| KEEL Keel Infrastructure Corp. | ▲ | $1.43B |
| PWP Perella Weinberg Partners | ▲ | $1.25B |
| WD Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | ▶ | $1.12B |
| RHLD Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | ▼ | $889M |
| GDOT Green Dot Corp | ▲ | $695M |
| BTGO Bitgo Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $691M |
| QFIN Qfin Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $681M |
| BUR Burford Capital Ltd | ▲ | $659M |
| VEL Velocity Financial, Inc. | ▶ | $581M |
| HIVE Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. | ▲ | $557M |
| FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. | ▲ | $510M |
| ABTC American Bitcoin Corp. | ▶ | $504M |
| OPFI Oppfi Inc. | ▲ | $481M |
| GEMI Gemini Space Station, Inc. | ▲ | $463M |
| WYFI Whitefiber, Inc. | ▲ | $457M |
| OPRT Oportun Financial Corp | ▲ | $418M |
| BTBT Bit Digital, Inc | ▲ | $346M |
| SVIA Silvia, Inc. | ▼ | $323M |
| ORBS Eightco Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $318M |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | ▶ | $266M |
| USDE Stablecoinx Inc. | ▼ | $257M |
| CNCK Coincheck Group N.V. | ▶ | $257M |
| MFIN Medallion Financial Corp | ▲ | $257M |
| BKKT Bakkt, Inc. | ▶ | $252M |
| SNFCA Security National Financial Corp | ▲ | $240M |
| ZSQR Z Squared Inc. | ▲ | $227M |
| CPSS Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. | ▲ | $198M |
| LDI Loandepot, Inc. | ▲ | $181M |
| USBC Usbc, Inc. | ▶ | $175M |
| SLNH Soluna Holdings, Inc | ▼ | $164M |
| AMBR Amber International Holding Ltd | ▲ | $159M |
Where PGY sits on the market map
Finance or Crypto Assets · Finance Services
News
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock news
Why Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Outpaced the Stock Market Today
In the closing of the recent trading day, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stood at $18.4, denoting a +2.34% move from the ...
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock dips while market gains: Key facts
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) ended the recent trading session at $17.62, demonstrating a -5.88% change from the preceding day's closing price. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.51% gain on the day.
FAQ
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock forecast?
Our AI ranks Pagaya Technologies Ltd. outside the neutral middle of its coverage (a directional signal). Create a free account and follow it to see the exact price target.
How accurate are Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock predictions?
For PGY, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -2.0%, measured on 302 forecast dates between 2023-08-18 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 6.0%, measured on 345 forecast dates between 2023-08-18 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Pagaya Technologies Ltd. forecasts updated?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, PGY included, share the SEC industry code Finance Services. The largest are: American Express Co (AXP), Strategy Inc (MSTR), Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL), Sofi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.