Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Alpha · vs marketSwitch to Total · Nasdaq
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, UPST is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap company with a market capitalization of $2.41B. It ranks number 21 by market capitalization among the 60 Finance Services issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For UPST, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 43.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 38.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected return relative to the market over the horizon: a positive alpha means the model expects the stock to beat the market, whatever the market does. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +1.7%, buy ≥ +0.2%, sell < -0.9%, strong sell < -1.2% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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How UPST ranks among 5171 stocks
90D Alpha forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Finance Services peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.41B | 21/60 |
| P/E Ratio | 44.20x | 2/19 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02x | 11/46 |
| EPS | $0.56 | – |
| Book Value/Share | $8.20 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $12.81 | – |
| FCF/Share | $-2.97 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6% | 10/29 |
| ROA | 1.9% | 8/31 |
| Operating Margin | 4.0% | 6/29 |
| Net Margin | 4.8% | 10/28 |
| EBT Margin | 4.0% | 15/41 |
| Tax Rate | 2.7% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| D/E Ratio | 2.98x | 18/54 |
| Financial Leverage | 3.98x | 18/52 |
| Interest Coverage | 0.9x | 12/33 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$284M | 40/46 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$289M | 20/32 |
| Capital Spending | -$5M | 9/32 |
| FCF/Sales | -23.2% | 16/29 |
| CapEx/Sales | 0.4% | 25/29 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.39x | 6/35 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 25.2x | 10/34 |
Income Statement
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1.25B | 10/38 |
| Operating Income | $50M | 6/32 |
| Net Income | $60M | 9/32 |
| R&D Expense | $305M | 4/11 |
| SG&A Expense | $970M | 4/19 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | UPST | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 97M | – |
| Net Income Growth | 903.6% | 1/13 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $456M | 14.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $2.37B | 74.9% of assets |
UPST quarterly financials and insider trading
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Upstart Holdings, Inc. (Finance Services): 60 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Alpha) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $2.41B |
| AXP American Express Co | ▶ | $211.77B |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | ▲ | $58.13B |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | ▲ | $45.69B |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | ▼ | $24.09B |
| CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. | ▲ | $20.87B |
| SOFI Sofi Technologies, Inc. | ▶ | $19.49B |
| BMNR Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | ▶ | $13.07B |
| IREN Iren Ltd | ▶ | $11.98B |
| CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. | ▲ | $11.23B |
| WULF Terawulf Inc. | ▲ | $6.30B |
| RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | ▲ | $5.82B |
| KLAR Klarna Group Plc | ▼ | $5.10B |
| DAVE Dave Inc./De | ▲ | $4.96B |
| BLSH Bullish | ▲ | $4.45B |
| CORZ Core Scientific, Inc./Tx | ▲ | $4.33B |
| CIFR Cipher Digital Inc. | ▲ | $3.73B |
| GPGI Gpgi, Inc. | ▼ | $3.61B |
| MARA Mara Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $3.22B |
| SII Sprott Inc. | ▶ | $2.92B |
| IOND Ionic Digital Inc. | ▶ | $2.83B |
| CLSK Cleanspark, Inc. | ▲ | $2.15B |
| XXI Twenty One Capital, Inc. | ▶ | $2.11B |
| BTDR Bitdeer Technologies Group | ▲ | $2.10B |
| ASST Strive, Inc. | ▶ | $2.06B |
| PURR Hyperliquid Strategies Inc | ▲ | $1.94B |
| SECZ Securitize Corp. | ▶ | $1.85B |
| WLTH Wealthfront Corp | ▲ | $1.75B |
| KEEL Keel Infrastructure Corp. | ▲ | $1.59B |
| PGY Pagaya Technologies Ltd. | ▲ | $1.49B |
| PWP Perella Weinberg Partners | ▲ | $1.24B |
| WD Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | ▶ | $1.14B |
| RHLD Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | ▼ | $922M |
| QFIN Qfin Holdings, Inc. | ▶ | $699M |
| GDOT Green Dot Corp | ▲ | $695M |
| BTGO Bitgo Holdings, Inc. | ▲ | $691M |
| BUR Burford Capital Ltd | ▲ | $659M |
| VEL Velocity Financial, Inc. | ▶ | $585M |
| HIVE Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. | ▲ | $557M |
| FWDI Forward Industries, Inc. | ▲ | $510M |
| WYFI Whitefiber, Inc. | ▲ | $505M |
| ABTC American Bitcoin Corp. | ▶ | $504M |
| OPFI Oppfi Inc. | ▲ | $492M |
| GEMI Gemini Space Station, Inc. | ▲ | $463M |
| OPRT Oportun Financial Corp | ▲ | $424M |
| BTBT Bit Digital, Inc | ▲ | $346M |
| SVIA Silvia, Inc. | ▼ | $344M |
| ORBS Eightco Holdings Inc. | ▶ | $330M |
| USDE Stablecoinx Inc. | ▼ | $275M |
| DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | ▶ | $266M |
| CNCK Coincheck Group N.V. | ▶ | $257M |
| MFIN Medallion Financial Corp | ▲ | $257M |
| BKKT Bakkt, Inc. | ▶ | $252M |
| SNFCA Security National Financial Corp | ▲ | $240M |
| ZSQR Z Squared Inc. | ▲ | $227M |
| CPSS Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. | ▲ | $198M |
| LDI Loandepot, Inc. | ▲ | $192M |
| SLNH Soluna Holdings, Inc | ▼ | $183M |
| USBC Usbc, Inc. | ▶ | $175M |
| AMBR Amber International Holding Ltd | ▲ | $170M |
Where UPST sits on the market map
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock news
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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, UPST is rated Neutral: its 90-day Alpha forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5171 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Upstart Holdings, Inc. stock predictions?
For UPST, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is 43.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is 38.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Upstart Holdings, Inc. forecasts updated?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s industry peers?
60 issuers in our coverage, UPST included, share the SEC industry code Finance Services. The largest are: American Express Co (AXP), Strategy Inc (MSTR), Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL), Sofi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.