Rio Tinto plc : Jefferies is Neutral
Rio Tinto plc is one of the world's leaders in mining research, prospecting and operating. Net sales break down by family of products as follows: - iron ore (49.2%): 290.6 Mt prod ...
Model output · Signal date 2026-10-16
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) Stock Forecast Oct. 16, 2026
Analysis updated on Oct. 16, 2026 (UTC) · Total · absolute moveSwitch to Alpha · NYSE
Rating · 90D
Total
90-day forecast
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30-day forecast
Total
Rank in coverage
Middle 30%
of 5172 stocks scored
Rank correlation · 90D
-1.0%
Spearman, 357 dates
Market Cap
$146.97B
large-cap · #3 of 46 peers
Summary
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) stock forecast summary
On Oct. 16, 2026, RIO is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
Rio Tinto Plc is a large-cap company with a market capitalization of $146.97B. It ranks number 3 by market capitalization among the 46 Metal Mining issuers in our coverage with a current forecast.
For RIO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -1.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
Expected absolute price move over the horizon, market included. This is the number a price target is built from. Ratings: strong buy ≥ +5.0%, buy ≥ +3.4%, sell < +1.8%, strong sell < +0.8% (top 15%, next 20%, middle 30%, next 20%, bottom 15% of the 2026-10-16 signals)
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RIO price chart and AI forecast
Cross-section · 2026-10-16
How RIO ranks among 5172 stocks
90D Total forecasts of every company scored, cut into five relative ratings at the 15th, 35th, 65th and 85th percentiles (dashed lines).
Fundamentals · 2025-12-31
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) fundamentals
Trailing twelve months. The industry median and the rank (1 = highest) are taken over the Metal Mining peers listed below that report each metric.
Valuation & Market
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $146.97B | 3/46 |
| P/E Ratio | 4.64x | 10/12 |
| EPS | $19.48 | – |
| Revenue/Share | $101.38 | – |
Profitability & Margins
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 51.2% | 5/24 |
| ROA | 24.9% | 4/33 |
| ROIC | 40.5% | 6/28 |
| Operating Margin | 27.8% | 5/14 |
| Net Margin | 19.3% | 3/13 |
| EBT Margin | 27.3% | 5/16 |
| Tax Rate | 28.4% | – |
Financial Health
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.44x | 26/48 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.98x | 8/17 |
| D/E Ratio | 0.98x | 13/38 |
| Financial Leverage | 2.06x | 13/40 |
| Working Capital | $6.64B | 4/47 |
Cash Flow
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $46.41B | 2/42 |
| OCF Growth YoY | -4.8% | 3/6 |
Operational Efficiency
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.29x | 3/16 |
| Receivables Turnover | 33.0x | 5/11 |
| Fixed Assets Turnover | 2.0x | 5/14 |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 11 days | 7/12 |
Income Statement
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $164.97B | 2/16 |
| Operating Income | $45.82B | 2/34 |
| Net Income | $31.85B | 1/33 |
| R&D Expense | $1.24B | 1/6 |
Dividend & Shareholder Information
| Metric | RIO | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding | 1627M | – |
| Net Income Growth | -12.7% | – |
| EPS Growth | -13.0% | 6/9 |
Balance Sheet Highlights (USD millions)
| Total Current Assets | $21.57B | 16.8% of assets |
| Cash & Short-term Investments | $8.87B | 6.9% of assets |
| Accounts Receivable | $5.00B | 3.9% of assets |
| Inventory | $6.97B | 5.4% of assets |
| Total Liabilities | $61.08B | 47.7% of assets |
| Short-term Debt | $4.80B | 3.7% of assets |
Quarterly Financial Reports
RIO quarterly financials and insider trading
Industry Peers · Metal Mining
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) industry peers
Companies classified under the same SEC industry code as Rio Tinto Plc (Metal Mining): 53 common-stock issuers with a forecast this week, one row per issuer, largest first. This is a classification match, not a curated list of competitors.
Reveal all forecasts · See exact % predictions for all competitors
Sign up free| Company | 90-Day AI Forecast (Total) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|
| RIO Rio Tinto Plc | ▶ | $146.97B |
| BHP Bhp Group Ltd | ▶ | $211.39B |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corp/ | ▶ | $167.29B |
| FCX Freeport-Mcmoran Inc | ▶ | $99.86B |
| VALE Vale S.A. | ▶ | $55.75B |
| HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | ▲ | $10.47B |
| MP Mp Materials Corp. / De | ▲ | $7.15B |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | ▲ | $6.91B |
| USAR Usa Rare Earth, Inc. | ▲ | $3.95B |
| ERO Ero Copper Corp. | ▲ | $3.56B |
| ALM Almonty Industries Inc. | ▲ | $2.84B |
| NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. | ▲ | $1.66B |
| IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc. | ▲ | $1.38B |
| USAS Americas Gold & Silver Corp | ▲ | $1.21B |
| TMC Tmc The Metals Co Inc. | ▲ | $1.14B |
| CRML Critical Metals Corp. | ▲ | $1.02B |
| SGML Sigma Lithium Corp | ▲ | $950M |
| RBTK Zhen Ding Resources Inc. | ▼ | $886M |
| ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd | ▲ | $823M |
| LAC Lithium Argentina Ag | ▲ | $793M |
| GSM Ferroglobe Plc | ▲ | $753M |
| DC Dakota Gold Corp. | ▲ | $739M |
| THM International Tower Hill Mines Ltd | ▲ | $568M |
| ALOY Realloys Inc. | ▲ | $499M |
| NB Niocorp Developments Ltd | ▲ | $456M |
| WRN Western Copper & Gold Corp | ▲ | $410M |
| LZM Lifezone Metals Ltd | ▲ | $256M |
| REA Rare Earths Americas, Inc. | ▲ | $144M |
| COBA Chilean Cobalt Corp. | ▼ | $133M |
| LCGMD Lion Copper Corp. | ▼ | $105M |
| PZG Paramount Gold Nevada Corp. | ▲ | $91M |
| THMG Thunder Mountain Gold Inc | ▶ | $77M |
| LCGMF Lion Copper Corp. | ▼ | $62M |
| AEC Anfield Energy Inc. | ▶ | $56M |
| NEXM Nexmetals Mining Corp. | ▶ | $52M |
| WWR Westwater Resources, Inc. | ▲ | $52M |
| COPR Idaho Copper Corp | ▼ | $49M |
| SRGZ Star Gold Corp. | ▲ | $32M |
| DYNR Dynaresource, Inc. | ▼ | $19M |
| LTUM Lithium Corp | ▲ | $6M |
| SVBL Silver Bull Resources, Inc. | ▼ | $3M |
| LBSR Liberty Star Uranium & Metals Corp. | ▶ | $3M |
| MAGE Magellan Copper & Gold Corp | ▶ | $2M |
| ARRT Artisan Consumer Goods, Inc. | ▼ | $1M |
| FUST Fuse Group Holding Inc. | ▶ | $1M |
| ENRT Enertopia Corp. | ▲ | $430K |
| ACRL Atacama Resources International, Inc. | ▲ | N/A |
| ADMG Adamant Dri Processing & Minerals Group | ▼ | N/A |
| AMLM American Lithium Minerals, Inc. | ▲ | N/A |
| BHLL Bunker Hill Mining Corp. | ▶ | N/A |
| GSTX Graphene & Solar Technologies Ltd | ▼ | N/A |
| HNOI Hno International, Inc. | ▼ | N/A |
| RYES Rise Gold Corp. | ▼ | N/A |
Where RIO sits on the market map
Energy & Transportation · Metal Mining
News
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) stock news
Rio Tinto Q3 Consolidated Copper, Iron Ore Production Up; Backs FY26 Production, Sales View
For fiscal 2026, the firm still expects consolidated copper production at 800 kt to 870 kt and Global iron ore sales at 343 Mt to 366 Mt. In the third quarter, copper production on a consolidated ...
Berenberg Updates Estimates for Rio Tinto After 'Mixed' Q3 Production Results
Rio Tinto plc is one of the world's leaders in mining research, prospecting and operating. Net sales break down by family of products as follows: - iron ore (49.2%): 290.6 Mt prod ...
FAQ
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) stock forecast FAQ
What is the Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) stock forecast?
On Oct. 16, 2026, RIO is rated Neutral: its 90-day Total forecast sits in the middle 30% of the 5172 stocks scored that day.
How accurate are Rio Tinto Plc stock predictions?
For RIO, the Spearman rank correlation between our 90-day forecasts and the returns that followed is -1.0%, measured on 357 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-07-17 on this stock's own recent history. A rank correlation runs from -100% to +100%: it measures whether higher forecasts were followed by higher returns, and a value near zero or below means the model has shown little skill on this stock. On the 30-day forecasts the same correlation is -6.0%, measured on 400 forecast dates between 2022-07-29 and 2026-09-16. Across our coverage, the out-of-sample test on 4495 stocks from 2025-01-06 to 2026-07-07 produced a positive net return in 82.5% of rebalance periods (factor-neutral book, net of estimated costs). Full backtest report
How often are Rio Tinto Plc forecasts updated?
Rio Tinto Plc forecasts are refreshed on trading days as the daily model run completes. The forecast on this page was produced on Oct. 16, 2026.
Which companies are Rio Tinto Plc's industry peers?
53 issuers in our coverage, RIO included, share the SEC industry code Metal Mining. The largest are: Bhp Group Ltd (BHP), Southern Copper Corp/ (SCCO), Freeport-Mcmoran Inc (FCX), Vale S.A. (VALE), Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM), Mp Materials Corp. / De (MP).
This analysis is generated automatically using our proprietary AI systems and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions.